Las Vegas Raiders vs. Detroit Lions kicks off Monday at 8:15 p.m. EST in Detroit as a home game for the Lions. The Raiders are currently a +7.5 underdog and +295 on the moneyline while the total is set at 46.5. With the Lions offense in a position to rout the Raiders defense, expect plenty of overs for the likes of Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta as valuable player props for this Las Vegas Raiders vs. Detroit Lions matchup.
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After a reality check from the Baltimore Ravens, the Detroit Lions now find themselves back in the comfort of their own home as they prepare to host the Las Vegas Raiders on prime time. Practically nothing went right last week for Detroit on both sides of the ball, now getting a far lesser quality of opponent in the Raiders. Jared Goff is poised for a monster outing, facing little to no pressure while getting the chance to shred the secondary.
Jared Goff Over 265.5 Passing Yards
One of the bigger factors in the Lions’ demise last week was their inability to negate the Ravens pressure. This collapsed the pocket and forced Goff into less-than-ideal throwing situations. It was bad enough that Goff struggles to throw in heavy winds, having to do so while also throwing into tight windows while constantly under pressure hurt as well.
Jared Goff can rest assured that the Raiders front four will not bring the same level of pressure. In fact, they may not bring any pressure at all as the Raiders front seven ranks 30th in Pressure Rate. Their defensive line is void of talent outside of Maxx Crosby, giving the Lions ability to shift their coverage to throw more doubles at Crosby while straight up blocking the rest.
With a clean pocket, Goff will be in a position to shred this Raiders secondary who have struggled in coverage. The Raiders defense ranks 21st in Def Pass DVOA, 26th in Def Pass EPA, and 17th in Def Pass Success Rate. An intriguing trio of metrics as they tell a story of their coverage getting worse as the Lions move the ball down the field.
Jared Goff Over 23.5 Pass Completions
Not only will Jared Goff shred the Raiders secondary, but he will do so at a very efficient clip. This prop is in strong correlation with the previously mentioned one as Goff will find himself with a very clean pocket and playmakers who are capable of creating separation in the open field.
Jared Goff 🚀Jameson Williams
45-yard TOUCHDOWN 🙌
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/ZfjO5zYKHf
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 15, 2023
Goff has been lights out so far this season, throwing for 1,902 yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions at a 68% completion rate. More important to this prop, his completion percentage ticks up when playing at home as he is currently throwing an astounding 72.9%. Better yet, Gibbs serves as a dual-threat back in David Montgomery’s absence and gives Goff another playmaker in the pass attack while Montgomery serves as more of a bull back.
Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime Touchdown
Speaking of Gibbs, it was made apparent that the Lions had intentions to heavily feature him in the offense in his first stint as a starting running back. The issue is that the Lions were in a deficit from the opening kickoff and had to revert to a heavier dose of the pass in an effort to keep within scoring pace of the Ravens.
The Raiders not only struggle to contain the pass, but they are somehow even worse at defending the run. They currently rank 28th in Def Rush DVOA, 31st in Def Rush Success Rate, and 31st in Def Rush EPA. With Montgomery out again, expect Gibbs to be the go-to back in goal line situations as he gets a friendly opportunity to punch one in behind one of the best offensive lines in football and against a near dead last Def Rush EPA ranking Raiders front.
Sam LaPorta Over 3.5 Receptions
While his status is uncertain, Amon-Ra St Brown recently popped up on the injury report early Sunday as questionable as he is dealing with an illness. This potentially opens up more targets for the rest of the Lions pass catching unit, including rookie sensation Sam LaPorta. He has already carved out a role as a reliable go-to target for Jared Goff, now getting the chance to exploit the gaps in coverage against a weak Raiders secondary. Even if Brown plays, expect LaPorta to continue to be heavily featured as he averages nearly five receptions a game.