Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Player Props & Picks (12/31/23)

Get Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts player prop picks & odds for the (12/31/23) matchup.

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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Picks

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Indianapolis Indiana as a home game for the Colts. The Raiders are currently a +3.5 underdog and +160 on the moneyline while the total is set at 42.5. Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell to struggle while Jonathan Taylor leads the Colts offense, all giving value as player props for this Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts matchup.

Gardner Minshew Under 234.5 Passing Yards

After being thrusted into the starting lineup due to Anthony Richardson’s season ending injury, Gardner Minshew has managed to keep the Colts competitive behind a respectable passing performance. While you have to commend what he has been able to do, the Colts have also run as one of the luckiest units in football and have fallen hard back down to earth as of late.

They now have to face a team that has had the opposite trajectory, once playing as one of the worst defenses in the league and have now improved to well above average. Especially with their coverage metrics, coming into the contest ranked sixth in Def Pass DVOA, 11th in Def Pass EPA, and 14th in Def Pass Success Rate.

A big reason for their turnaround has been from the increased level of play from their linebackers, a group that has turned into an efficient all-around unit who has excelled in both coverage and run stopping. Watching the tape against the Chiefs, the Raiders linebackers were flying to the ball and limiting production at point of contact. That spells doom for a quarterback who thrives with the short throw, limiting his production to the benefit of this under.

Gardner Minshew Over 0.5 Interception

With the Raiders linebacking unit giving them a much-needed boost in coverage, Minshew is in a position to throw a pick against the Havoc minded unit. Especially with the Raiders defensive scheme keeping their linebackers in coverage, blitzing at a near dead last rate.

The Colts offensive line also struggles to consistently provide a clean pocket for Minshew, ranking 19th in Adjusted Sack Rate. They are routinely pushed back from the opening snap and now have to find a way to contain star edge rusher Maxx Crosby. Factoring in Crosby forcing Minshew to scramble, as well as throwing against an improved Raiders coverage unit, Minshew is poised to throw a pick while under pressure.

Aidan O’Connell Under 214.5 Passing Yards

Aidan O’Connell didn’t have to do much in his last outing against the Kansas City Chiefs and may be in a position to do the same against the Indianapolis Colts. In a 20-14 victory, O’Connell only completed nine passes for a total of 62 yards. This was in large part of the Chiefs inability to stop their ground game, now potentially getting the same benefit in this contest.

Raiders rookie Aidan O’Connell with a perfect throw on the out breaking route. Really nice job with the timing.

The fourth-round pick out of Purdue has really started to look comfortable. pic.twitter.com/haBQqcRuWQ

— Seven Rounds in Heaven (@7RoundsInHeaven) December 25, 2023

The Colts front seven is not just bad at stopping the run, they are near league worst as they come into this contest ranked 24th in Def Rush DVOA, 27th in Def Rush Success Rate, and 23rd in Def Rush EPA. A large part of their inefficiencies stem from their poor defensive line play, a unit that ranks 22nd in Def Adjusted Line Yards.

Whether it’s Josh Jacobs or Zamir White, both running backs will be in a position to routinely churn out yards against this weak front seven. The Raiders had no issue with abusing the run last time around, giving conviction that they will opt in to doing the same should they find immediate success on the ground.

Jonathan Taylor Over 16.5 Rush Attempts

With Gardner Minshew in a position to struggle, as well as a spread indicating that this will be a tight contest, star running back Jonathan Taylor should receive a heavy dose of rush attempts. The Colts ground game has been their lone consistent source of offensive success, ranking eighth in Rush DVOA.

While the Raiders coverage has taken a massive step up in production, their run stopping abilities have yet to follow suit. Heading into this contest, the Raiders front seven ranks 19th in Def Rush DVOA, 23rd in Def Rush Success Rate, and 28th in Def Adjusted Line Yards. That gives the Colts the edge when in the mid field, just needing to call the run at a high rate in order to cash this prop.

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