Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts: Prediction, Odds, Depth Charts (12/31/23)

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts kicks off Sunday (12/31/23) at 1 p.m. EST in Indianapolis as a home game for the Colts. Get Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts predictions and best bets below. Our best bet is on the Raiders +3.5 as the market is still too low on Las Vegas.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction & Best Bet

No team went through more turbulence than the Las Vegas Raiders as they have fired their head coach, benched their starting quarterback and have now strung together two impressive late-season performances. Especially in their latest win against the Chiefs, bottling up Patrick Mahomes and their offensive attack while running it down their throats to a 20-14 win. While you can argue that this is a sell high spot, the market is still disrespecting the strides the Raiders have made in production.

This is especially on the defensive side of things, where they once ranked near dead last across the board in Def Rush DVOA and Def Pass DVOA. While stopping the run has still been a struggle, their massive increase in quality of coverage has been a revitalization. The Raiders come into this contest ranked sixth in Def Pass DVOA, 11th in Def Pass EPA and 14th in Def Pass Success Rate. More impressive yet, their front four’s contribution has been weak. That means that the improvements largely rest on their secondary’s shoulders.

The improvement in the back end is vital for the Raiders success in this contest as they can now afford to use their linebackers as run stoppers at a heavier rate to help mask their weak rush defense metrics. Not only does this help negate the Colts ground game who ranks eighth in Rush DVOA, but it also generates more pressure in the interior for a unit that currently ranks 30th in Pressure Rate.

As for the Raiders offense, expect their ground game to thrive once again as they take on a very weak Colts front seven. Limiting opposing rush success has been a struggle for Indianapolis all season long, ranking a lowly 24th in Def Rush DVOA, 27th in Def Rush Success Rate, 23rd in Def Rush EPA and 22nd in Def Adjusted Line Yards. The Raiders had no issue with pounding the ball all game long against the Chiefs weak rush defense, now getting the same opportunity to do so again while also avoiding potential turnover worthy throws from Aidan O’Connell.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction & Best Bet: Raiders +3.5

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds

Even after a massive win on prime time against the Kansas City Chiefs, oddsmakers have tempered their expectations and opened the Raiders as a +3.5 underdog. A startling difference from the lookahead line, originally opened the Raiders as a -2 favorite earlier this year. Even potentially without Jacobs, the Raiders offense have shown to continue to thrive.

As for the total, oddsmakers believed points would be scored at a moderate rate as they opened the number at 44.5. Bettors believe points will come at a slightly slower rate, backing the under down to 43.5 as of writing. The line movement toward the under makes sense as the Colts should struggle to move the ball while the Raiders focus their attack on the ground.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Key Injuries

The Colts come into this contest fairly healthy while the Raiders currently have Josh Jacobs and Maxx Crosby listed as questionable on their injury report.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Key Matchups

Can Aidan O’Connell complement their ground game with success through the air?

Aidan O’Connell vs. Indianapolis Colts Secondary

Aidan O’Connell was practically non-existent in his last outing against the Kansas City Chiefs, only completing nine of 21 passes for a lowly 62 yards. Granted he didn’t really have to do anything as his Zamir White had zero issue with bulldozing over the lackadaisical Chiefs front seven to the tune of 145 yards.

Zamir White breaks free for 43 yards!

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— NFL (@NFL) December 25, 2023

While he may be able to take another game off due to the previously mentioned poor Colts rush defense metrics, his ability to air out the ball will raise the ceiling for their offensive production. He may be in a position to do so should the Colts have to stack the box against their ground game, opening up higher quality passing lanes on the outside for O’Connell to exploit. Slowing down the Colts front four is vital as well, a feat that they can pull off with an offensive line that ranks 13th in Adjusted Sack Rate.

Las Vegas Raiders Depth Chart

QB: Aidan O’Connell
RB1: Josh Jacobs
RB2: Zamir White
LWR: Davante Adams
RWR: Jakobi Meyers
SWR: Hunter Renfrow
TE1: Austin Hooper

Indianapolis Colts Depth Chart

QB: Gardner Minshew
RB1: Jonathan Taylor
RB2: Zack Moss
LWR: Michael Pittman Jr
RWR: Alec Pierce
SWR: Josh Downs
TE1: Kylen Granson

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