Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Player Props & Picks (12/25/23)
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The Las Vegas Raiders just put up one of the biggest wins in league history, as they hung 63 points on the Los Angeles Chargers. Now, with that momentum behind them, they’re playing host to another AFC West divisional rival, the Kansas City Chiefs. Kasas City just snapped a rare stretch of three losses in four games and continues to pursue seeding in a packed conference. Let’s get into some Raiders vs. Chiefs player prop picks and odds for a very special Christmas Day game on Monday (12/25/23).
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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Picks
It’ll be interesting to see how superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes handles a quietly strong Las Vegas pass defense, while the Raiders will need to break out of their season-long rushing slump and move the ball on a rough Chiefs ground defense.
Rashee Rice Under 64.5 Receiving Yards
If you expected this year’s Raiders to be 10th in the entire NFL in both EPA and DVOA against the pass, congratulations. You’re part of a very select and shockingly correct club. Patrick Graham has done a phenomenal job with the unit, providing a real positive alongside a run defense that ranks 22nd in DVOA, 25th in success rate and 30th in adjusted defensive line yards.
With that dichotomy in mind, the Chiefs should be more than happy to stay on the ground and control the football at home. They should be ahead, as double-digit favorites, so the script should favor the run, especially as Isiah Pacheco is a full participant at practice as he looks to return from injury.
Don’t confuse this with a fade of Rice. He’s been absolutely phenomenal, and should be an integral part of this KC offense going forward as a favorite target for Mahomes. But this is still a great time to sell high on this particular prop. He’s cracked this number in three of the past four weeks, and the one miss was a game where he put up exactly 64 yards. He’s been above or right around this number for a month now, a trend that can’t last forever and should be snapped against a solid air defense.
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Interceptions (+114)
In the same vein of that tough Raiders pass defense, let’s do a legitimate fade on the reigning MVP, Patrick Mahomes. This prop isn’t a lock by any stretch, but it absolutely should not be in plus-money, considering the fact that it’s hit in each of Mahomes’s past three outings, and 10 of his 14 games this year overall.
Let’s also use some other prop lines to build context. Mahomes’s pass attempts line is set at 35.5, a reasonable number as he’s thrown the ball 35 or more times in nine games this season. He’s been intercepted in eight of those outings amid what has been a really tough season by his standards. He’s behind only Sam Howell and Josh Allen with 13 interceptions so far.
The picks aren’t fluky, as his turnover-worthy plays are up too, per PFF. Even though he’s attempting fewer passes per game, he’s only three turnover worthy plays short of last year’s full-season total, a number he should eclipse shortly, possibly even in this game. Against an underestimated pass defense, he should turn the ball over at least once given his expected volume.
Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)
For some reason, Jacobs’ rushing yardage prop is unavailable, so keep an eye out for that one. In the meantime, his anytime touchdown scorer prop will do, especially at eye-catching +140 odds. Jacobs has only scored once in his last four games, making this an excellent buy-low spot, and the matchup suggests that he’ll be able to get the job done.
Much like the Raiders, the Chiefs have an unbalanced defense. They’re one of the better overall units in the league, lifted up to eighth in overall defensive DVOA by the fifth-best unit against the pass. But their run defense ranks a stunning 27th by the same metric. EPA grades the unit 31st, while they’re 26th in adjusted line yards and 22nd in success rate, painting a brutal overall picture of their ability to stop the run.
They’ve also been pretty mediocre in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on 57.5% of opponent trips inside the 20. That’s good for just 20th in the league, not exactly what you want against the defending NFL rushing yards season leader. Jacobs has slumped a bit this year, as has the entire Vegas offense, but he will have chances to shine in this one.
Harrison Butker Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-130)
The Chiefs offense is not what it once was under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Tyreek Hill is gone, we’ve already discussed Mahomes’ struggles, the O-line is just average in the run blocking game ranking 17th in adjusted line yards and Travis Kelce has visibly slowed down from superhuman to just very good.
Kelce has been under 60 yards in four of his past seven games, and has cracked 100 just twice this year, back in October. Perhaps more important for this prop, three of his five touchdowns were in the first four weeks. He hasn’t scored in over a month – a stunning four-game drought. We’re honing in on Kelce because given the state of the run game, which ranks 26th by success rate and 31st by EPA, he’s just about all the Chiefs have in the red zone.
Kansas City ranks 14th in red-zone efficiency with just 56.6% of drives inside the 20 turning into touchdowns. It could definitely sputter at the end of drives against that tough Raiders air defense even if it moves the ball well. Butker has been over this number in two of his past three games, and should do it again as KC continues to flounder more than usual.
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