After a record-setting win over the Los Angeles Chargers, the Las Vegas Raiders will look for another shocker against the Kansas City Chiefs this Christmas Day (12/25/23). With stars like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Jacobs squaring off, let’s pick out a few legs for a Raiders vs. Chiefs same game parlay.
Raiders Vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay Picks
Shockingly enough, both of these teams are coming in with a relatively defense-first resume this year. The Chiefs are heavily favored, but the Raiders have shown all sorts of positive flashes over the past few weeks since the firing of coach Josh McDaniels, so let’s see how these recent trends and certain mismatches might play out.
Leg 1: Chiefs Moneyline (-520)
There’s no way we’re touching the Chiefs on a double-digit spread against a divisional opponent. It’s never been a good move throughout the Mahomes-Reid era, and it isn’t wise now as the team looks more vulnerable than ever.
That said, this remains a winnable game for Kansas City. They’re playing at home against a team that comes to Arrowhead Stadium annually, but has only won there once in the past 10 seasons. Vegas’s offense has completely fallen flat this year, ranking 28th in DVOA, and while a quietly solid defense should keep them in this one, it’s almost impossible to imagine them generating enough on the other side of the ball to actually win it.
Leg 2: Raiders Team Total Over 10.5 (-218)
While the Raiders haven’t been any sort of offensive juggernaut this year, they’ve shown some potential to make plays with Aidan O’Connell at the helm and McDaniels out of the building. Of course, their 63-point shellacking of the Chargers comes to mind, an impressive display in which all of the scoring essentially took place across three quarters, but this is a very different defense.
Still, Kansas City’s biggest weakness on defense has been their inability to stop the run at times. This will be easier for Las Vegas to exploit if Josh Jacobs ends up being healthy and ready to go, but the defending rushing yardage season leader hasn’t been that great this year; second-year pro Zamir White might be just as capable of taking advantage of the wide open spaces against a defense that ranks 27th in DVOA against the run, and 31st in EPA.
Conversely, while the Chiefs pass defense has largely been great, that has been due in large part to a front seven that relentlessly pressures opposing passers. The secondary ranks just 20th in PFF’s coverage grade, and could have a tough day against the trio of Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Renfrow.
Leg 3: Rashee Rice Under 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Rice is putting together a rookie season to remember, but this could be a week to sell high on his recent successes. The Raiders defense has been a lot better than expected, namely against the pass; they’re 10th in both EPA and DVOA against air offense.
Conversely, against the run, they’re 25th in success rate, 22nd in DVOA, and 30th in adjusted defensive line yards, so the Chiefs will be happy to keep the ball on the ground in a game where they’re expected to lead. This would have been a very different proposition a week ago, with Isiah Pacheco hurt, but he looks to be healthy and ready to go this Monday and should have a big role.
Rice has been over this number in three of his past four games, and the fourth was a near miss with 64 yards on the dot. He has a bright future ahead of him in Kansas City, but this level of production won’t happen every single week, and this is a situation where he could falter.
Leg 4: Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+114)
In a season that has been so largely anomalous for the superstar Chiefs quarterback, he could be in for another tough day against that surprisingly solid Raiders defense. Mahomes has thrown interceptions in 10 of 14 games this season, including each of his last three. He’s third in the NFL with 13 interceptions thus far, and his turnover worthy play rate is on the rise from a year ago, even as he’s thrown the ball a bit less.
His pass attempts prop is set at 35.5 right now, which is understandable given the fact that he’s thrown the ball 35 times or more in nine games this season. In eight of those outings, he was intercepted at least once, so it’s hard to understand why the implied odds of him doing it again would be under 50% when it’s hit at a rate of 89% thus far.
Leg 5: Davante Adams 50+ Receiving Yards (-285)
If the Raiders are going to be behind- which the 10-point spread surely implies- they’re going to be throwing. The Raiders have been pass-heavy all year, throwing the ball on essentially 60% of offensive snaps, and this game should be no exception, even with that strong Kansas City pass defense.
When the Raiders throw, Adams is a big part of it, especially with Aidan O’Connell at quarterback. In the past five games- essentially the stretch over which O’Connell has been the full-time starter, save for his first game in his current stint in the role, Adams has cracked this number every week. He’s cleared it comfortably more often than not, going for over 70 yards in four instances and over 80 in three.
Compared with a less-consistent start to the season for the superstar wideout, with Jimmy Garoppolo throwing passes, it’s been a nice stretch of games for Adams. His team will lean heavily on him as they look to pull off a big upset win, and he should certainly be able to hit this alternate total.
Same Game Parlay Card For Raiders Vs. Chiefs
Full parlay odds: +900
- Chiefs Moneyline (-520)
- Raiders Team Total Over 10.5 (-218)
- Rashee Rice Under 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+114)
- Davante Adams 50+ Receiving Yards (-285)