On Sunday (11/19/23), the Las Vegas Raiders face the Miami Dolphins in an AFC matchup with playoff implications. In this article, find a breakdown of the game and the latest betting odds. In addition, find our best bet which is the Dolphins -12.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction
The Raiders were left for dead a couple of weeks ago, but interim head coach Antonio Pierce has injected new life into the team. However, I’m not fully bought in after he led Las Vegas to wins over Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson, perhaps the two worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL right now. Things get much tougher this week.
The last time we saw the Dolphins, they fell short in an overseas matchup against the Chiefs in Germany. However, Miami has thrived at home as a big favorite – Tua Tagovailoa is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS in his career as a double-digit favorite. The Dolphins are leading the NFL with 31.7 points per game and 7.1 yards per play, and this Raiders defense isn’t built to slow them down.
It’s been a while since the Raiders have faced an elite quarterback. Four of their last five games were against DeVito, Wilson, Mac Jones and Tyson Bagent. Their season long pass defense metrics have improved as a result, but they still rank just 28th in pressure rate and don’t have any reliable pass rushers outside of Maxx Crosby. I expect Tua to have plenty of time in the pocket to deliver balls to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
When the Raiders have the ball, they’ll be asking rookie Aidan O’Connell to generate offense against a Vic Fangio defense that will be the healthiest its been all season. Jalen Ramsey is healthy after being sidelined for the first two months, and the former All Pro cornerback is a transformative player for Miami’s defense.
The Dolphins’ run defense hasn’t held up this year as they rank 29th in EPA, but the Raiders rank 31st on offense. Josh Jacobs has been ineffective behind a poor offensive line all year, and I don’t expect them to take advantage of Miami’s weak run defense, especially if the game script falls out of their favor.
We’re getting Miami in a prime buy spot here – they’re coming off their bye week healthy and hungry for a statement win after their loss to the Chiefs. The Raiders have been a fun story, but this represents a significant step up in competition, and I’ll bet on the Dolphins’ elite offense running up the score on their way to a decisive win. At -10, this was my favorite bet of the week. I’d still play it up to -13, but reduce your risk at that number.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction: Dolphins -12
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Best Betting Odds
After opening with the spread as low as -9.5 or -10 in favor of the Dolphins, it jumped all the way up to -13 before some buyback on the Raiders. The market is certainly expecting an offensive explosion from the Dolphins after their bye week as a total of 46 points leads to an implied score of around 30-16.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Key Injuries
The Raiders have their two best defensive players on the injury report as both ED Maxx Crosby and CB Nate Hobbs are questionable. Miami is mostly healthy coming off the bye week, and dynamic rookie RB De’Von Achane could be making his return from the IR.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Key Matchups
When the Raiders face the Dolphins on Sunday, there will be playoff implications in the AFC. Let’s break down how some of the key matchups might play out between these teams.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle vs. Raiders’ Cornerbacks
Before the season, Tyreek Hill declared that he wanted to become the first wide receiver with 2,000+ yards in a season, and he’s well on his way with a league-leading 1,075 yards. Jaylen Waddle has lagged behind this year as he has dealt with minor injuries, but the bye week should have done him some good after he recently had his first 100-yard game.
The Raiders secondary is highly vulnerable, especially with all three corners – Nate Hobbs, Marcus Peters and Amik Robertson – on the injury report. If one of the three can’t play, there’s a strong chance we’ll see fourth round rookie Jakorian Bennett, and he has the fourth-worst PFF coverage grade of 126 qualified cornerbacks.
Tyreek Hill presnap motion drew 2 defenders and left Jaylen Waddle wide open for what should be clinching TD for Dolphins.
Waddle and Hill have gone over 100 yards today: pic.twitter.com/mFtu9VQel1
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) October 29, 2023
Davante Adams vs. Jalen Ramsey
Over the offseason, there was lots of talk about Jalen Ramsey being a chess piece for the Dolphins and moving all over the formation. This week, his highest and best use would seem to be shadowing Davante Adams, who is still one of the best wide receivers in the NFL despite an awful quarterback situation in Las Vegas.
If Ramsey is shadowing Adams, this could become a big game for Jakobi Meyers, who has 463 receiving yards through nine games. I’d be intrigued by Meyers’ props in this one as the hefty spread indicates rookie Aidan O’Connell will be put in a passing game script as the team trails in the second half.
Mac Jones ➡️ Jalen Ramsey pic.twitter.com/SwK9oI5VHW
— Boston Cream 🍩 (@itsbostoncream) November 13, 2023