Get Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears player prop picks & odds for the (12/10/23) matchup.
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Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Player Prop Picks
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Chicago Illinois as a home game for the Bears. The Lions are currently a -3 favorite and -168 on the moneyline while the total is set at 43.5. Expect Jared Goff and David Montgomery to struggle while Justin Fields and DJ Moore lead the Bears offense, all giving value as player props for this Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears matchup.
Jared Goff Under 243.5 Passing Yards
It was anything but normal in Goff’s performance against the Bears defense earlier this season as he threw three horrid interceptions with the potential for two more while also leading a last-minute drive that resulted in a win. While the turnover bug may have seemed to pass, Goff’s struggles may continue to come back to haunt him as he plays in less-than-ideal weather conditions.
Goff’s road struggles are widely known as his splits take a drastic dip when playing outdoors in poor weather conditions. Goff already throws a relatively weak ball, now having to do so in near 20 mph winds. That takes away his mid-range throwing ability, as well as making his deep ball practically non-existent.
With that aspect of the offense gone, expect the Lions to revert to a heavier dose of the run at the benefit of this props under. With less pass attempts comes a higher chance of clearing this under. Especially with the spread favoring the Lions in what may be an ugly one, allowing them to continue to abuse the run in an attempt to drain the clock and walk away with the win.
David Montgomery Under 61.5 Rushing Yards
Just because the Lions rush attack may feature a heavier dose of the run, that doesn’t mean it will come with resounding success as the ground game is in for a world of hurt against the Bears front seven. Especially with the Bears being able to stack the box, daring Goff to find success through the air in windy conditions.
David Montgomery gets his 10th rushing TD of the season! pic.twitter.com/8hkyQglUMc
— LionsFanReport (@lionsfanreport) December 3, 2023
As for the Bears defense, they have been an elite run stopping unit all season long. As of writing, the Bears front seven clocks in at 11th in Def Rush DVOA, second in Def Rush Success Rate, and third in Def Rush EPA. Their defensive line has played a major role in these impressive marks, ranking second in Def Adjusted Line Yards. That means they rarely get pushed back by the run block, pushing back if anything and clogging running lanes.
The Bears are also in a good position to get their revenge and secure the win with multiple factors playing towards their favor. An elite run stopping unit, wind negating Goff’s arm, and an offense poised to shred the Lions secondary. For a complete game breakdown explaining these advantages in detail, you can read it here.
Justin Fields Over 194.5 Passing Yards
He may have not come close to clearing this mark in his first contest against the Lions, but it’s because he never really had a chance too. Fields found himself with generous field position numerous times due to Goff’s turnovers, lessening the yards to gain to enter into scoring position. They also lead for a majority of the contest, getting the ability to abuse the run which eats away at his pass attempts.
You have to imagine the turnovers swing back towards the Lions favor as Goff has been efficient with the ball during his Lions tenure. That potentially makes this a tighter affair, allowing Fields to air it while moving the ball down the field. When doing so, it’s against one of the worst secondaries in football as the Lions backend ranks 30th in Def Pass Success Rate.
DJ Moore Over 67.5 Receiving Yards
When Fields is airing out the ball, expect him to find his number one target DJ Moore who is in a position to thrive this time around. DJ Moore went off in their first contest against the Lions, hauling in seven receptions for 96 yards and one touchdown.
Heavy wind should not play as much of a factor towards Fields as it does to Goff as Fields throws a much tighter ball. Especially when the gaps in the Lions coverage reside six to eight yards downfield between the linebackers and safeties, giving Moore opportunities to rack up yards after the catch as Fields hits him in stride when he streaks across the middle.