On Sunday (10/15/23), the Detroit Lions face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a crucial NFC matchup. In this article, find player prop selections for this game featuring David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mike Evans, and more.
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Detroit Lions Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Picks
In one of the most intriguing matchups of the season, the Buccaneers host the Lions off their bye week. Many are calling Detroit a potential Super Bowl contender this season, and these are the types of games they will need to prove they can win. Let’s break down some different player prop angles that might provide value in this game. Be sure to use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different books. Let’s get to work.
David Montgomery Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
David Montgomery has been an absolute workhorse for the Lions in his first season in Detroit. In the last two weeks alone, he has a whopping 51 carries for 230 yards. This week sets up as another smash opportunity for him against a struggling Tampa Bay defense – the Buccaneers rank 29th in rushing success rate allowed.
The Lions weren’t giving rookie Jahmyr Gibbs that much work to begin with, and now he’s out with a hamstring injury. In his absence, Montgomery will only get more work behind a dominant offensive line that ranks fifth in adjusted line yards. The Buccaneers have the sixth-worst stuff rate this season, so Montgomery should eat.
You can look at buying Montgomery to score a touchdown, but the odds are pretty juicy – the best I can find right now is -155 at DraftKings. If you’re so inclined, a Same Game Parlay with Montgomery’s rushing yards, touchdown prop, and the Lions’ Moneyline could make a lot of sense.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-120 BetMGM)
Amon-Ra St. Brown missed last week’s game with an abdomen injury, but its sounds like he’ll be a full go here. Keep an eye on the injury report as you want to be careful with betting on a player’s over when they aren’t at 100%. However, St. Brown has been over this number in three of his four games this season.
The Lions will need to feed St. Brown targets in this game. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs is out with a hamstring injury while tight end Sam LaPorta could be limited by a calf injury. Second-year receiver Jameson Williams is also still ramping back up after his suspension.
Further helping this prop is the Buccaneers’ heavy blitz tendencies – they blitz at the third-highest rate in the NFL. When Jared Goff is blitzed this season, he has given Amon-Ra St. Brown a 35% target per route run rate. Tampa’s ability to get home without blitzing will only be hindered by the potential absence of edge Shaquil Barrett.
St. Brown’s receptions prop could make sense as well, but you have to pay close to -150 juice to the over on that one. He has gone over in eight of his last ten games, though, so perhaps that’s the better way to go. That’s for you to decide.
Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+185 FanDuel)
This is a wild touchdown price for Mike Evans. The future Hall of Fame receiver has been a touchdown scoring machine throughout his career, and he has scored in three of his four games this season. In the one game where he didn’t score, he missed the second half of the game against the Saints due to a hamstring injury.
His status was previously in doubt for this game due to that hamstring injury, but head coach Todd Bowles said Evans is a full go for this week. The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for Evans due to the injury.
I’m not sure if this +185 price point is a hedge by the books on Evans’s injury status, but I’m still not totally sold on this Detroit pass defense. The Lions’ secondary is missing key starters Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Brian Branch, and Emmanuel Moseley, and they’re much more equipped to stop the run in the red zone at this time.