On Sunday (10/22/23), the Detroit Lions face the Baltimore Ravens in a highly anticipated matchup between Super Bowl hopefuls. In this article, find a breakdown of some player prop picks to consider for this game featuring Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, Josh Reynolds, and Zay Flowers.
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Detroit Lions Vs. Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Picks
This matchup between the Lions and Ravens is one of the most highly anticipated games of the season, and both teams are leading their respective divisions after wins in Week 6. The Lions are dealing with injuries to all three running backs on their roster, so keep that in mind when selecting player props for this game.
You can use the player prop search tool above to see the latest betting odds from a range of sportsbooks, and I highly recommend having accounts on multiple books so you can always get the best odds for your wager. Check out the Lineups YouTube page for more player prop content for this week. Let’s get to work.
Jared Goff Under 246.5 Passing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
While Jared Goff finished last week’s game with 353 passing yards, I expect this week to be much more difficult for him. Prior to last week, he had been under this passing yardage number in three straight games. This week, he faces an elite Ravens pass defense on the road in what could be tough weather conditions.
Baltimore ranks top five in most meaningful pass defense metrics, including DVOA and EPA. There is also expected to be heavy wind in this game with 20 mph winds projected at kickoff and gusts up to 35 mph during the game. That will make it difficult for Goff to find consistency passing downfield.
Goff has been one of the league’s best deep ball passers this season, ranking first with 20.6 yards per attempt on 20+ yard throws. However, those deep passes won’t be as easy to find here. Despite the running back injuries for Detroit and a likely heavier passing game script, I don’t expect a huge game for Goff through the air.
Josh Reynolds Under 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Josh Reynolds has been outstanding this season, finishing with 50+ receiving yards in all but one of his six games. However, he’s picked on some pass defenses that grade out much worse than Baltimore’s, and I see this as a strong spot to fade him despite the early season success.
The expected wind in Baltimore could also sap the team’s downfield pasing game, and Reynolds leads the team’s receivers with an aDOT of 13.1 yards. Factor in the emergence of second-year wideout Jameson Williams, and Reynolds’s role could be reduced this week in a difficult matchup.
Lamar Jackson Anytime Touchdown (+140 FanDuel)
Preparing for Lamar Jackson is never easy, and the Lions will need to be well aware of the threat he poses as a runner. Jackson has four rushing touchdowns through six games, and it could be even higher as he ranks second among all quarterbacks in red zone carries. I like these odds for him to find the end zone this week.
Always make sure you’re shopping odds for all props as they vary significantly across different sportsbooks. That’s especially true for touchdown props – as I’m writing this, I’m seeing -135 odds on BetMGM and +140 on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Zay Flowers Over 4.5 Receptions (-135 Caesars)
Rookie phenom Zay Flowers has quickly become the Ravens’ top wide receiver, and after scoring the first touchdown of his career last week, I expect his role to continue to remain significant in the offense. Flowers has 5+ catches in three of his last four games and leads the team with a 27.7% target share.
Flowers has a low aDOT of 8.5 yards, the lowest on the team, and that’s a plus here as he’ll see short area targets that will be less affected by the heavy wind. Against an elite Lions run defense, I expect Flowers to serve as an extension of the run game with underneath receptions.