Liverpool vs. Tottenham Hotspur Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions (4/30/23)

With the season coming to a close, both Liverpool and Tottenham are clinging to the last bit of hope when it comes to the top four race. That hope could be snuffed out this weekend with a loss for either side, as Tottenham come up to Anfield for a major clash. Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks for what should be an intense Premier League matchup.

Liverpool vs. Tottenham Hotspur Prediction & Pick

All season long, it’s been a struggle for both of these sides, who have both been out of all knockout competitions, domestic and European, for quite some time, and neither has had league title aspirations in months. Top four is even becoming a bit of a pipe dream for both, as Liverpool are 7 points out and Spurs are 6 away, but both have played a game or two more than most of the competition.

Where these clubs differ is current form. Tottenham haven’t won any of their past 3 matches in the league, including two losses to promotion side Bournemouth and a historic slamming by Newcastle, although their recent draw against United did feature a nice comeback. Conversely, Liverpool are on a mini-heater, having won three in a row, granted all against sides that are in the relegation battle.

Picking a wager on this game is tough. Liverpool are probably the better side, but -200 is ridiculous for a team that hasn’t shown any consistency all season- if they were to win, it would be just their second four-match win streak of the Prem season, and the first one straddled the month-long World Cup break so it wasn’t really a sustained period of good play.

This match is at home, where they’ve had better results, and they have already won at Tottenham this season. That being said, I simply don’t trust them enough to invest in -200 odds after the season they’ve had, so I’m taking the Tottenham double chance at +155.

For the scoring total, even with the elevated number, I like the over a lot. Both of these sides have been scoring goals of late, and all season, but both (especially Spurs) have been allowing them as well, so expect a fun, high-flying matchup with plenty of goals.

Picks: Tottenham Double Chance (+155), o3.5 (+105)

Liverpool vs. Tottenham Hotspur Odds

Liverpool are major home favorites with -200 odds, while the draw is +390 and Spurs are set at an eye-popping +475. For goalscoring, the most even number is actually 3.5, where the over is just +105 and the under is -130.

Key Matchups

Liverpool’s midfield has been problematic all season, but some recent tinkering has yielded good results. The defense has continued to struggle though, and goes up against a talented attack from Spurs. Let’s take a look at how these trends might play out on Sunday.

Spurs Attack vs. Liverpool Attack

It’s a bit of an unconventional position battle to discuss, but with two defenses that have generally played poorly, it’ll be key to see which attack is sharpest, and able to outpace the other- so let’s dig into both.

In a development that should surprise literally nobody, Harry Kane leads Tottenham with 24 goals in the Prem this season. What’s a bit more surprising is how far ahead of the pack he’s been; nobody else has really put together much of a standout season, despite the team overall scoring a decent amount of goals.

Son Heung-min is second on the team with just 9 Prem goal, the most recent of which was the big late equalizer against United. Fullback/midfielder Ivan Perisic leads the team with 7 Prem assists, with winger Dejan Kulusevski right behind him despite missing some time this year.

On the Liverpool side of things, there’s been one relative constant: Mo Salah. While he’s not necessarily in the best form of his career, he’s picked up some big goals and had solid performances, and is well on his way to another 20 goal/10 assist season in the Prem without having hit a penalty (16 goals 7 assists so far).

Roberto Firmino and Darwin Nunez are up next with 9 goals apiece in the league, although the Brazilian- who has played really well this season- has seen little playing time since the squad has gained a bit of health.

Cody Gakpo and Diogo Jota started against West Ham, the former scored a beautiful goal and the latter had braces in his previous two starts, so I would imagine that both will be in the lineup again. Still, bench performances from those left out could be key if a late goal is needed to secure points.

The Midfield Battle

After I wondered out loud how Tottenham would line up for their match with United, they went with the 3-4-2-1, meaning that there were only two true central midfielders. Those were Oliver Skipp and Pierre-Emile Højberg, both of whom turned in nice performances and will likely be in the same spots again this time out.

The other two Spurs “midfielders” in that line of 4 were Ivan Perisic, the team’s assist leader, and Pedro Porro, who scored the team’s first goal of the day. Both were acting in more of a wingback role, but had an important possession and playmaking influence nonetheless and were two of Spurs’ best players on the day.

As Liverpool have struggled this year, Manager Jürgen Klopp has been forced to experiment with formation more than usual. Recently, he’s taken a page out of Pep Guardiola’s book and used Trent Alexander-Arnold as a midfielder, above another right-back. It has freed up the much-maligned defender to control and pass the ball without tracking back as much, and the results have been magnificent at times.

The more conventional LFC midfield three of Curtis Jones, Fabinho, and Jordan Henderson started their most recent match, and I’d imagine that Klopp will trot out something similar against Tottenham, as each of the three played well last time out. It’ll be interesting to see if Klopp incorporates Alexander-Arnold at this level of the pitch, and if so, how he handles that.