Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers (6/14/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction
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The battle for L.A. has come once again, as the American League Los Angeles Angeles “travel” to face the National League Los Angeles Dodgers.
At one point, the Dodgers were dominating the NL West while the Angels were dominating the AL West. But – much like the weather in Southern California – both teams have entered a June gloom.
The Angels recently lost 14 straight games, and are still just 2-8 in the last 10. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are on a three-game skid and are 4-6 in their last 10. The former lost the divisional lead and is now almost 10 games back of the Astros, while the latter’s divisional lead has shrunk to under a game.
So, with both teams being desperate for a series victory, which one has the edge?
Read on for the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction for this Tuesday matchup.
Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers Odds
This line is about right. The Dodgers should be about -200 favorites, especially with the near-perfect Tony Gonsolin on the mound. Gonsolin is 7-0 this season with a 1.58 ERA.
Noah Syndergaard will take the mound for the Angels, and he’s actually been alright so far this season. That is, save one start against the Mets.
So, is it worth buying a bit on the Angels at such a big number?
Maybe, but the total does look somewhat high at 9 with both pitchers having performed well this season. Plus, three of the last five between these two teams have gone under.
Los Angeles Angels Starting Lineup
LF B. Marsh L
CF M. Trout R
DH S. Ohtani L
3B A. Rendon R
1B J. Walsh L
C M. Stassi R
RF J. Lagares R
2B L. Rengifo S
SS A. Velazquez S
Los Angeles Angels vs Tony Gonsolin
The Dodgers just churn out top-tier starting pitchers. The comeuppance of both Tyler Anderson and Gonsolin attests to that, and it’s why the Dodgers lead MLB in starting pitcher ERA this season (2.73).
Gonsolin is young, and he’s been quite effective in his limited MLB exposure so far. But what has he done especially well this season?
Nobody hits the ball hard off Gonsolin. His 26.4% hard-hit rate ranks among the top-three percentile of qualified pitchers. While his ERA is a ridiculous 1.58, his 2.58 xERA is also one of the best in the Big Leagues.
Similar to guys like Nathan Eovaldi and Shohei Ohtani, Gonsolin pairs a solid four-seam fastball with a splitter. Gonsolin will set guys up with the four-seam, and then hitters are totally fooled with the splitter. So far this season, Gonsolin has posted a -10 Run Value on the splitter with a 40% strikeout rate.
He’s also got a slider that has a -7 Run Value this season and a 40% whiff rate. Pair the two together, and it’s surprising he doesn’t strike out more than 8.53 batters per nine innings.
Tony Gonsolin, Wicked Slider and Splitter. 😼 pic.twitter.com/VzNibNV0GU
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 9, 2022
The Angel lineup is in a tough spot. Trout’s recent slump totally crushed the offensive production. During the Angels’ 14-game losing streak, Trout went on a 4-for-46 stretch that included an 0-for-26 stretch.
Ohtani’s power is coming back around, but his OPS still hasn’t cracked .800. And since Taylor Ward is still hurt, the Angels don’t have the horses to go outside of that.
Over the last month, the Angels are 18th in wRC+ (101) and 21st in SLG (.397).
Los Angeles Dodgers Starting Lineup
RF M. Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
SS T. Turner R
3B M. Muncy L
DH J. Turner R
C W. Smith R
CF C. Bellinger L
LF E. Alvarez S
2B G. Lux L
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Noah Syndergaard
Syndergaard will never put together a season as he did in 2016 again. However, that doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective middle-rotation guy on a Big League roster.
In fact, the whole Angels rotation has been pretty decent so far. The pitchers are at least giving the Halos a chance.
The five main starting pitchers for the #Angels are looking like they might be back on track.
Patrick Sandoval 2.81 ERA
Shohei Ohtani 3.64 ERA
Noah Syndergaard 3.69 ERA
Michael Lorenzen 3.69 ERA
Reid Detmers 3.83 ERA #GoHalos— Classic Designs (@Classic_Cards_) June 10, 2022
Thor’s strikeout rate is way down. He’s striking out only 5.83 batters per nine innings. As a result, his xFIP is up around 4.35. His walk rate is solid, and his batted ball stats are average. But overall, his xERA is north of 4.50.
All-in-all, I would expect regression from Syndergaard.
His sinker hasn’t been the issue, as it’s produced a -9 Run Value so far this season. However, his secondary stuff has picked up a +5 Run Value so far – most notably his changeup and slider.
The Dodgers will crush anything. But I would be very careful throwing the changeup towards them, as the Dodgers are the fifth-best changeup hitting team in MLB (11.5 Weighted Changeup Runs Created).
There are more playmakers on the Dodgers than in any team in the league. But, the Dodgers lineup hasn’t been lighting the world on fire recently. Over the last two weeks, this lineup ranks 19th in both OPS (.695) and wRC+ (93).
It’s why the Dodgers keep losing. They scored a total of four runs in San Francisco over the weekend, getting handed a sweep by their biggest divisional rivals. Things need to turn around quickly for Dave Roberts and co.
Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick & Prediction
My picks: Under 9 (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)
But, today is not the day that the Dodgers will turn the offense around.
Both these offenses are severely overvalued right now. There are so many dangerous playmakers on both sides, but neither lineup is smashing the ball top-to-bottom.
Gonsolin will continue to deal, and Syndergaard can do enough to keep the Dodgers under this number.
I think we’re looking at a 4-1 Dodgers victory – or something in that range. I’ll happily take the under 9 at -120 or better, but I would advise staying away at 8.5. The number has already dropped a half-run at some books.
