The Los Angeles Chargers will head up to Wisconsin this Sunday (11/19/23) for a cross-conference matchup with the Green Bay Packers at legendary Lambeau Field. Get Chargers vs. Packers odds, picks and predictions below, as our best bet is over 44 points.
Chargers vs Packers Prediction
This game can only be described as an inflection point for both the Packers and Chargers. Los Angeles is a game better than Green Bay right now, record wise, but with the AFC Wild Card race much more competitive than the one in the NFC, both teams are essentially positioned the same in regards to making a late playoff push. Each squad is firmly on the outside looking in right now, but things could change with a big win this week.
The two sides are on very different paths; the Packers looked like they were in great shape after a 2-1 start, and a real argument that the lone loss at the time should have been a win. After that second win, they lost four games in a row as the offense built around Jordan Love completely collapsed, and the team is 3-6 overall at this point.
As for the Chargers, they started the year 0-2 before eventually slipping to 2-4, but things are looking up; LA looked dominant in wins over the Bears and Jets, before dropping a very close one against an excellent Lions team. It’s a crowded field in the AFC, but at just a game out of the seventh seed with a relatively friendly finishing schedule, Justin Herbert could kick things into high gear and lead his team on a run.
For both teams, that final push more or less needs to start with this game, the tenth of the season for both squads. Falling to 3-7 would be a definitive death knell for Green Bay’s playoff hopes, while slipping a pair of games below .500 would be a very challenging hole from which to climb out of for LA. It’s hard to know who will come out on top in a game that Vegas sees as fairly even, but there’s one thing we should be able to rely on; defensive ineptitude.
A Packers defense that was supposed to be a relative strength this season has been a real disappointment; they rank 23rd in DVOA, and it’s been around a month since they put in a truly great performance, outside of a shutdown of the Rams offense led by backup QB Brett Rypien. Conversely, their air offense has managed to stay above average in adjusted sack rate and DVOA, so they should be able to take advantage of a Chargers defense that ranks 25th in DVOA against the pass.
And on the other side of things, if there’s one thing the Chargers do well- and there really might be just one thing- it’s throwing the football. Justin Herbert hasn’t had his best statistical season, but he’s limited interceptions and the unit overall still ranks seventh in the league in passing offense DVOA. On top of it all, the Chargers run the second-fastest offense in the league, and the Packers check in at 12th, so the pace in this one should be quick, with plenty of points to go around.
Chargers vs Packers Prediction: Over 44 Points
Chargers vs Packers Best Odds
The Packers are +3 home underdogs, or +135 on the moneyline compared to -165 odds for the Chargers to win. With the total set at -110, both the over and under are -110 to hit.
Chargers vs Packers Key Injuries
Star Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander is dealing with a shoulder injury and has not been practicing, while key players like wideout Keenan Allen and edge rusher Khalil Mack also missed Wednesday practice for the Chargers.
Chargers vs Packers Key Matchups
Both teams will look to assert themselves through the air in this one, with neither rushing offense nor pass defense sticking out as a definitive strength.
Packers Air Offense vs. Chargers Pass Defense
While the transition from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love at quarterback looked like it was off to a smooth start this year, things have gotten ugly fast. Love has thrown 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, while completing just 58.7% of his passes. Interestingly enough, Jayden Reed has been his top target in terms of yardage, while Romeo Doubs leads in targets, catches, and scores. PFF considers the offensive line to be the fourth-best pass blocking group in the league, but they rank just 14th in adjusted sack rate.
The Chargers pass defense somehow ranks near the bottom of the league in pressure rate despite blitzing an average amount, and employing the pass rush duo of Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. The secondary has also performed way below its talent level, yet another failure of Brandon Staley, a supposed defensive guru. The Packers’ pass game isn’t special, but will have plenty of opportunities to create offense against this group.
Chargers Air Offense vs. Packers Pass Defense
LA’s passing attack is probably the greatest strength of either team. Justin Herbert has gotten his passer rating up just below 100, with the help of Keenan Allen, who has already caught 73 passes for nearly 900 yards, on pace for his career high in yardage. The offensive line is ninth in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, as their performance has really improved of late.
The Green Bay pass rush has been really disappointing, ranking 23rd in PFF’s grades and 23rd in adjusted sack rate. Rashan Gary has put up another great season with a pass rush win rate of 25.6%, just a tenth of a percent behind Myles Garrett for the best figure in the league, but the rest of the unit has been a major letdown. The secondary grades a bit better, but with Alexander banged up, a lack of depth in this area will become glaringly clear against those LA pass catchers.