Los Angeles Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds, Picks, and Predictions (12/26/22)

On the night after Christmas and after a full weekend of NFL Football, Monday Night Football gives us an AFC Matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Indianapolis Colts.  The Los Angeles Chargers are currently fighting to get into the Wild Card spot and are currently sitting in there with an 8-6 record.  If the Chargers make it to the playoffs, it would be Justin Herbert’s first playoff appearance in his young career.  He has already shocked the NFL up to date and the playoffs is still the one thing that has eluded him so he needs to stay winning late in this season to keep the Chargers in the race.

The Indianapolis Colts are going through a disruptive season and sitting at 4-9-1.  They have already fired a coach and interim head coach Jeff Saturday has lost four games in a row.  Indy has also had a carousel at QB this season between Matt Ryan and Sam Ehlinger, but now we will see a new QB at the helm.  Former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles will be starting this week for the Colts.  Foles has shown miraculous moments in the past, certainly winning the Superbowl was the highlight.  Now, he has a chance to show off his skills again from the backup position and it will definitely be up in the air if he still can play like he once did.  Let’s jump into this matchup’s picks and predictions.  

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds

Los Angeles are currently moneyline favorites at -210 in this matchup and spread line favorites at -4.5 points.  You may be wondering why it’s such a close line with the difference in records but this game is a home game for the Colts and Indy has shown their ability to stay super close with top teams even in losing battles.  The Chargers also have had their fair share of close games as well and this hot streak they have been on may have some trip ups.  Nick Foles hasn’t always shown his ability to be a long-term starter but he has always been good short-term providing a spark to teams so if he can provide that to Indy on Monday Night, the Colts definitely have a chance to keep this game close.

The over/under total in this game is currently 45.5 points for this game.  The Chargers currently average 22.3 PPG while the Colts average 17.5 PPG.  In terms of points allowed, the Chargers averaging 24.3 and Indy is averaging 24.1, so pretty close when it comes to points allowed averages.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Indianapolis Colts Picks & Predictions

My Pick: Indianapolis Colts +4.5(-110)

If Matt Ryan was still the starter, I would be taking the Chargers and the points.  However, I think Nick Foles will be creating a spark with the Colts that will help them cover the +4.5 points to at least keep it close and possibly win.  Foles is known for doing that his entire career, shown at his time in Philly.  This defense has been incredible all season and could definitely slow down Justin Herbert the same way they slowed down Patrick Mahomes earlier in the year.  Only allowing the Chiefs offense to score 17 points.  If the offense can get going and Foles doesn’t show rust in this matchup, Indy has a good chance at picking up their fifth win of the year.  The absence of RB Jonathan Taylor will certainly slow down production, but the pickup of Zack Moss can be a good filler in his place.

As for the total, I like the under in this game with the line at 45.5.  I think this game will be a very defensive heavy game.  The Colts average less than 20 points and the Chargers are barely above that line and both have been pretty good defensively this year.

Betting Trends

  • Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
  • Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win.
  • Over is 8-1 in Chargers last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Over is 4-0 in Colts last 4 games following a straight up loss.
  • Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Indianapolis.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams.

Key Injuries

Los Angeles Chargers:

Kemon Hall, Questionable; Derwin James Jr., Questionable

Indianapolis Colts:

Brandon Facyson, Questionable; Kenny Moore II, Questionable; Mike Strachan, Questionable; Jonathan Taylor, Injured Reserve

Key Matchup

Nick Foles vs. Los Angeles Chargers Defense

The matchup that will have the biggest spotlight will be Foles against the Chargers defense.  Foles has not taken any snaps this season so it will be interesting to see how he plays.  Foles was the 2017 Super Bowl MVP however, so that has to count for something in assuming this guy can still play at a high level.  All eyes will be on him to see how he plays after sitting for so long.

Los Angeles Chargers Depth Chart

QB: Justin Herbert
RB1: Austin Ekeler
RB2: Joshua Kelley
LWR: Mike Williams
RWR: Keenan Allen
SWR: Joshua Palmer
TE1: Gerald Everett

Indianapolis Colts Depth Chart

QB: Nick Foles
RB1: Zack Moss
RB2: Deon Jackson
LWR: Alec Pierce
RWR: Michael Pittman Jr.
SWR: Albert Wilson
TE1: Kylen Granson

Jack is a Hoosier by birth and Hoosier by alum. Full of hot takes but sharper predictions. Residing now in the Chicago area. When he's not chowing down on deep dish pizza and Italian beef, he's watching and betting sports. Junkie for everything CBB, NBA, NFL, CFB, and MLB. Here to feed you a system to follow that might even be better than the one Tom Brady was gifted his whole career.

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