Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors Preview (11/23/22): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds

The healthy Golden State Warriors (8-10) host the Los Angeles Clippers (11-7), who will be without Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Luke Kennard. The Clippers are touted for their depth, and it will be put to the test against the defending champs.

Can Los Angeles secure a win on the road without their stars? Odds, predictions, key matchups, and starting lineups are below.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

Golden State is heavily favored, as the spread sits at -9.5 Warriors with a -400 moneyline. Los Angeles’ moneyline is +375, which means they must win 22% of the time to be profitable long-term. Meanwhile, the over under can be found at 223.5 total points; Golden State’s team total is 116.5, while Los Angeles is 106.5.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction

I’m taking the under here, which has hit in 5 of their last 7 matchups.

At home, Golden State is 7-1 with the 3rd Defensive Rating. Their discipline and defensive rotations improve dramatically, and they have the personnel to neutralize a wounded Clippers squad.

Because George and Kawhi are out, the offense will run through Jackson, Morris, Powell, and Wall. Golden State can limit half of them immediately by deploying Draymond on Morris and Wiggins on Powell. As a result, the Clippers would gain lackluster production from their top two available scorers. Wall is always a threat to set up teammates, but his individual scoring has declined. Jackson, on the other hand, remains an inefficient option who takes terrible shot quality attempts. Curry’s defense is surprisingly sturdy, so he will pose a decent obstacle for Los Angeles’ guards.

The Clippers would have to get hot from deep to turn in a productive offensive night. They currently rank 14th in 3PT%, but they won’t have George (7.6 3PA, 37.2 3PT%) or Kennard (3.4 3PA, 47.9 3PT%) as options. It’s unlikely Los Angeles can explode given their injuries and Golden State’s excellent home defense. Also, the Clippers are 21st in pace, which helps cancel out Golden State being 2nd in pace.

On the other side, Los Angeles is loaded with defensive wings that can constantly switch. Because of this, the Clippers are 2nd in Defensive Rating and 1st on the road. The Warriors thrive as a catch and shoot team that hustles in transition. However, they may struggle against Los Angeles’ length and speed. The Clippers rank 7th in spot up defense and 5th in transition defense because they rotate quickly and contest shots. Golden State possesses the shooters to convert guarded attempts, but nothing will come easy for the Warriors.

Overall, this matchup features excellent defense and a plethora of lengthy wings. Given the Clippers slow pace and injuries to George, Kawhi, and Kennard, the Clippers 28th Offensive Rating should only plummet further. The biggest concern is three-point shooting; if both squads are scorching, then the over will almost always hit.

Betting Trends

  • Under is 17-5 in Clippers last 22 overall
  • Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 home games
  • Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings
  • Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Golden State

Key Matchups

Which team will win the positional matchups? Check out below for these vital battles.

Free Throws & Offensive Rebounds

Free throws and put-backs have tremendous expected points per possession, so the more frequent these occur the more likely the over hits. The league average is 78.2 FT%, which would produce 1.564 points per possession (assuming two FTA). For context, a 52 3PT% shooter would produce 1.56 points per possession.

The Clippers (19th FTA Rate, 27th OREB%) and Warriors (27th FTA Rate, 23rd OREB%) do not excel in these categories, which should deflate the total. If both squads continue their trends this game, then the probability of the under hitting would be significantly boosted.

Three-Point Shooting

Curry (11.8 3PA, 44.7 3PT%) is a titan from three, and Klay Thompson is heating up after a 41-point performance on 10/13 from deep. Add in Jordan Poole and Wiggins, and the Warriors could easily unleash a wave of three-pointers that cause the over to hit. Given their inconsistent shooting and the Clippers defense though, it’s more likely that the Warriors sink a decent amount of threes and fail to go nuclear. If this occurs, then the under looks great.

Los Angeles Clippers Starting Lineup

PG: Reggie Jackson
SG: Norman Powell
SF: Terance Mann
PF: Marcus Morris
C: Ivica Zubac

Golden State Warriors Starting Lineups

PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Draymond Green
C: Kevon Looney

Key Injuries

Los Angeles Clippers Injuries: Paul George (O), Kawhi Leonard (O), Luke Kennard (O)

Golden State Warriors Injuries: Andre Igoudala (O)

Braxton has been writing for Lineups since December 2021 with the majority of his articles focused on the NBA. He is currently a senior at the University of Pennsylvania where he has spent the last few years working with various UPenn athletics teams and contributing to the UPenn Sports Analytics Group.

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