The Rockies are 4-3 against the Dodgers at home this season, but they enter the weekend 22 games behind LA and destined for a fourth consecutive year missing the postseason. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have baseball’s best record and are 21-4 in their last 25 games. Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw gets the ball for the Dodgers on Saturday, while Kyle Freeland, looking to build off a great outing, will start for the Rockies.
Let’s take a look at starting lineups, betting odds, and predictions for Saturday’s matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Betting Odds
The Dodgers are big-time favorites at -245 on the moneyline despite their struggles at Coors Field this season, with the over/under set at 11 runs. Thursday night’s game proved why it’s so dangerous to pick the under in this series. Set at 12 runs, the over hit even though the Rockies were shut out. The Dodgers piled 13 runs on the board, taking advantage of the thin air and their immense talent to crush Colorado. The Dodgers are obvious favorites, but don’t fall for the under even with Kershaw on the mound.
Los Angeles Dodgers Starting Lineup
RF M. Betts R
SS T. Turner R
1B F. Freeman L
C W. Smith R
DH J. Turner R
LF J. Lamb L
3B M. Muncy L
CF C. Bellinger L
2B G. Lux L
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kyle Freeland
Kyle Freeland has effectively been the same pitcher for the last three seasons, consistently posting a mid-4 ERA, mid-4 FIP, and keeping both his walk and hit rates steady. The left-hander has a 4.64 ERA over 19 starts (108.2 IP) this season, with a 4.32 FIP, 1.362 WHIP, and 76 strikeouts. Freeland delivered his best performance of the season earlier this week, tossing 7 shutout innings in Milwaukee. He’s mostly struggled in three starts against the Dodgers this season, allowing 12 ER in 15.1 IP.
Freeland is operating with his best WHIP since his great 2018 season, limiting traffic on the basepaths, but that hasn’t always been the case in the thin air of Coors Field. Hitters are batting .306 against Freeland in Colorado with an OPS near .900 – a massive jump from his road numbers. Not all Rockies pitchers are affected by the thin air of Coors Field, but Freeland is – that’s something to watch in this one. Slowing down a lineup headlined by Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Trea Turner is a nearly impossible task. That trio opened the series by getting on base a combined 8 times Thursday night. Their success has made the absence of Chris Taylor barely even noticeable for the Dodgers. Gavin Lux has also thrived of late, batting .347 since the start of June. The Dodgers hit lefties about as well as they hit right-handers, so I wouldn’t expect Freeland to give them much trouble.
Colorado Rockies Starting Lineup
RF C. Joe R
DH C. Blackmon L
LF K. Bryant R
1B C.J. Cron R
2B B. Rodgers R
CF R. Grichuk R
3B R. McMahon L
SS J. Iglesias R
C E. Diaz R
Colorado Rockies vs. Clayton Kershaw
Clayton Kershaw’s terrific season hit a rare bump in his first start of the second half, when he allowed 4 ER in 4.1 IP against the Giants. He’s otherwise been great when healthy this year, posting a 2.49 ERA over 13 starts (76 IP) with a 2.61 FIP, 0.95 WHIP, and 81 strikeouts. Kershaw’s 0.7 HR/9 rate is his best mark since 2016, and he’s done an excellent job of keeping runners off the basepaths, allowing more than 5 hits in only 3 of his 13 starts.
Don’t automatically be allured by Kershaw’s name in this matchup. Even he was bested by Coors Field in June, allowing 6 ER and walking 4 batters in just 4 IP. Kershaw is further removed from the IL than he was at the time and has turned in some dominant performances over the past month, but the over/under is set high for a reason. After getting shut down by Tyler Anderson on Thursday, the Rockies badly need some of their power bats to step up. C.J. Cron and Ryan McMahon are a combined 5-for-49 since the all-star break, which doesn’t seem sustainable – especially at Coors Field. Kershaw will have to be wary of Kris Bryant, who has had a tremendous July. Brendan Rodgers is hitting .414 since the break and went 2-3 with 2 RBI the last time he faced Kershaw. While not much of a power threat, Rodgers has the potential to do some damage.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Picks & Prediction
My pick: Trea Turner to Record 2+ Hits
The Dodgers are such strong favorites that they don’t provide much value, and I don’t believe in the Rockies enough to bet on them in any capacity. Multiple hits for Trea Turner or Freddie Freeman is always one of the safer plays in a Dodgers game. At Coors Field, it’s even safer. Turner had 3 hits in Thursday’s blowout win and has 10 multi-hit games in 23 tries this month. One hit is almost a given, if you want to go that route with less value: Turner has a hit in 86% of games this season. Kershaw should pitch better than he did last time he was in Colorado, even if he gives up some runs, and there’s no reason to believe this Dodgers offense will slow down.