Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets, 5/30/19 10:10 PM ET Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA, TV: Los Angeles (SportsNet LA, KTLA, SNLA Spanish), New York (SNY) Radio: Los Angeles (AM 570 LA Sports, KTNQ 1020), New York (WCBS 880, ESPN Deportes 1050)
With the series currently in LA’s favor 2-1, the Mets and Dodgers are set to square off for the series finale tonight at 10:10 PM ET at Dodger Stadium. It’ll be Dodgers ace Hyun-Jin Ryu vs Jason Vargas of the Mets. They’re both lefties, but that’s about where the comparisons between the two end.
Hyun-Jin Ryu is 7-1 on the season with a posted ERA of 1.65 and 62 K’s on the year. Prior to the second inning of last Saturday’s start against the Pirates, Ryu had a streak of 32 scoreless innings pitched. He only gave up two runs in that game. In six games pitched against the Mets in his career, Ryu is 3-1 and has only given up a total of 11 runs. His ERA against the team is 1.66 going into tonight’s game.
And now we get to Vargas. Although his recent starts since coming off the IL have been better (allowing one run in four of his last five outings), Vargas still has an ERA of 5.22 on the year. Vargas has pitched abysmally in his two career starts at Dodger Stadium, posting an ERA of 10.13 through just eight innings pitched.
1. K. Hernandez , 2B
2. J. Turner , 3B
3. D. Freese , 1B
4. C. Bellinger , CF
5. C. Seager , SS
6. C. Taylor , LF
7. A. Verdugo , RF
8. R. Martin , C
9. H. Ryu , SP
The Dodgers are hitting slightly worse against lefties (.254 team BA) than righties (.268 team BA) on the year. That being said, their OBP between right/left-handed pitchers is only a 6% difference (.352 vs right / .346 vs left). If you haven’t been keeping up, Bellinger is still having an unreal year, hitting .378 with 20 home runs. While still posting great averages, it is worth noting that he’s hitting .343 vs left-handers as opposed to .395 against righties.
Not many in the Dodgers lineup have faced Vargas, but of those who have, David Freese is hitting .455 through 11 at bats, Enrique Hernandez is .500 through two, and Taylor Chris is 1.000 through one. Justin Turner and Russell Martin are without a hit against the left-hander.
Ryu doesn’t have much exposure to this Mets lineup, but of the batters he’s faced, only Juan Lagares is hitting above .200 off the lefty. The Mets will likely stack their lineup with right-handed hitters tonight, which has proven to be the best way to gain an edge against Ryu as on the year he’s allowed .220 BA to righties as opposed to a breathtaking .191 BA against lefties.
1. A. Rosario , SS
2. J. Davis , LF
3. M. Conforto , RF
4. P. Alonso , 1B
5. W. Ramos , C
6. T. Frazier , 3B
7. C. Gomez , CF
8. A. Hechavarria , 2B
9. J. Vargas , SP
Six games back in the NL East, the Mets have been a frustrating team to watch this year. They’re 12-19 on the road, so the already favored Dodgers gain another edge in that respect. They have been on a bit of an up-swing lately, though, as they’re 7-3 in their last 10.
Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith each had three hits in last night’s 9-8 loss. Smith will likely not be in the starting lineup tonight as he’s a lefty hitter, but he could be a valuable pinch hitter later in the game. It’s worth noting that he has the highest BA on the team (except Flexen who’s hitting .500 through two at bats) at .370, albeit through only 54 at bats.
Vargas is 1-1 on the road this year through four games. His road ERA is a staggering 6.75, and I don’t see this Dodgers lineup helping him get that down. Despite there not being much history between Vargas facing the Dodgers, it goes without saying that a struggling pitcher going up against one of the best offenses in the league almost never goes well.
Dodgers vs Mets Betting Odds
The line is currently set at Dodgers -280 Mets +195 after opening at Dodgers -230 Mets +195. To me, this game isn’t even worth betting as the Dodgers are almost a sure-win and there’s not much to be gained by -280 odds. If you wanted to place a small bet on the Mets and pray for a good outcome, I could foresee that being a fun evening, but I certainly wouldn’t recommend it as I, again, think the Dodgers are a sure win in this one. The over under opened at 8 and is now up to 8.5. I’d take the over in this one, as I foresee the Dodgers putting up a lot of runs and don’t think the Mets will be completely shut out, at least by the bullpen. Don’t worry if they aren’t putting up runs early against Ryu because he’s only gone above seven innings three times on the year.
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