Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Predictions, Odds, Best Bets, Starting Lineups (4/26/23)

The Pirates have been one of the best stories in baseball this month, jumping out to one of their best starts in decades. A blown lead against the Dodgers on Tuesday night might sting for a while, however, and it outlines how tough it is to beat this LA team even in what could be a down year. The Dodgers are road favorites at -140 on the moneyline in Wednesday’s matchup, per DraftKings sportsbook.

Let’s make predictions for Wednesday’s game in Pittsburgh and break down why the Dodgers are the safer pick.

Dodgers vs. Pirates Prediction

The Pirates have been a ton of fun early this season, but the Dodgers’ lineup is too hot to bet against right now. Los Angeles is averaging eight runs per game over its last three, thanks to (extremely) hot hitting by some bats not named Freddie Freeman or Mookie Betts.

Roansy Contreras has had his share of ups and downs this season, but a meltdown against the Astros earlier in the month is a bad sign of what could happen on Wednesday if the Dodgers get rolling.

It’s fair to have some concern about the Dodgers’ pitching staff. As great as Tony Gonsolin was last season, he’s making his first start of the season and might not be allowed to go very deep. That leaves a questionable Dodgers bullpen with plenty of innings to cover. If LA’s lineup hits to its potential early on, that won’t matter as much.

Dodgers -125 is the way to go as this Los Angeles team starts to get hot.

Dodgers vs. Pirates Prediction: Dodgers -140

Dodgers vs. Pirates Odds

The Dodgers enter as road favorites at -140 on the moneyline. The over/under for this one is 8.5 runs.

The Dodgers have a little bit of a mystery on their hands with Tony Gonsolin making his first start of the season. That uncertainty is enough to keep this line close even with LA averaging eight runs over its last three games. The line has moved in the Dodgers’ direction since it opened, taking some of the value away.

Dodgers vs. Pirates Key Matchups

Here are the key matchups that could decide Dodgers vs. Pirates.

Max Muncy’s Status vs. Roansy Contreras

Max Muncy has been ridiculously hot over the last two weeks, batting .368 with 10 home runs in a 13-game span. He also might not play on Wednesday. Muncy was placed on the paternity list Monday, which makes his status for Wednesday anyone’s guess after he missed Tuesday’s game. His absence would be a huge loss for the Dodgers, even after they survived it in the series opener.

If Muncy is in the lineup, Roansy Contreras will have to be very, very careful with him. He’s been so valuable because he’s still walking at one of the highest rates in baseball as his power surges.

Contreras has yet to allow a home run in four starts this season. That streak has a much better chance of continuing if Muncy is out, though there are still plenty of other dangerous hitters in this Dodgers lineup.

Tony Gonsolin vs. Pitch Count

It’s no secret Dave Roberts prefers to play it extra safe with pitchers coming off of injuries. Tony Gonsolin wasn’t the kind of pitcher who gave much length when he was fully healthy, so it’s tough to imagine he’ll be able to give the Dodgers serious innings on Wednesday. That means it’s going to be a full day for LA’s bullpen.

It’ll be on Gonsolin to not exacerbate how much the bullpen needs to be used and keep his pitch count relatively low. The Dodgers’ typically strong bullpen has been a mess this year, entering Tuesday with a 5.05 ERA, but it did a terrific job against the Pirates after Noah Syndergaard allowed seven runs. That’s a good sign, but it also means this bullpen might be a bit tired on Wednesday. Let’s see how much Roberts is forced to use his relievers.

Dodgers vs. Pirates Starting Lineups

Rockies Starting Lineup

SS Mookie Betts R
1B Freddie Freeman L
RF Jason Heyward L
DH J.D. Martinez R
CF James Outman L
2B Miguel Vargas R
LF David Peralta L
3B Chris Taylor R
C Austin Barnes R

Pirates Starting Lineup

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes R
2B Tucupita Marcano L
DH Andrew McCutchen R
1B Carlos Santana S
LF Jack Suwinski L
RF Connor Joe R
SS Rodolfo Castro S
CF Ji Hwan Bae L
C Austin Hedges R