The San Diego Padres fought back in Game 2, overcoming a number of early deficits to win a huge Game 2 over the Los Angeles Dodgers, 5-3. Neither Yu Darvish nor Clayton Kershaw pitched well, but the Padres did more behind a red-hot Manny Machado.
San Diego needed that win. If the Padres were down 0-2, this series is likely over. But now the Padres are going back to PetCo with the series tied and Blake Snell on the mound for a decisive Game 3.
The Dodgers will counter by starting Tony Gonsolin.
Which team has the edge?
Let’s dig in. Read on for our Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres starting lineups, betting odds, and predictions for Game 3 of this National League Division Series.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Odds
The Padres are taking all the money early, with the line already moving down from a +115 opening to close to EV.
I expect this line to keep moving. If you like the Dodgers, I’d wait to bet on this game. But if you like the Padres, bet on this game immediately.
The over is taking the smart money, and I do believe this number is slightly low at 7.5 juiced to the over. I’d consider that a solid play.
Los Angeles Dodgers Starting Lineup
RF M. Betts R
SS T. Turner R
1B F. Freeman L
C W. Smith R
DH M. Muncy L
3B J. Turner R
LF C. Taylor R
CF C. Bellinger L
2B G. Lux L
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Blake Snell
It’s been a wild year for Blake Snell. He had one of the worst stretches of his career in the first half before having one of the best stretches of his career in the second half.
Blake Snell before and after July 1st
Before: 36 IP, 5.60 ERA, 4.32 xFIP, 2.00 K/BB
After: 49 IP, 2.42 ERA, 2.60 xFIP, 3.90 K/BB
— David📈 (@DavidCBets) August 24, 2022
Perhaps Snell was just unlucky. Perhaps Snell started to turn it on. I can’t see that he did anything different with his approach, so I don’t have an explanation.
Snell has always performed well against the Dodgers, however. Save for an early September start where Snell allowed five runs in four innings, Snell has allowed a combined two runs over his last four starts against Los Angeles.
It’s also nice Snell will be throwing at home for this pivotal game.
Blake Snell’s home/road splits since becoming a Padre
Home: 149.1 innings, 3.07 ERA, 2.67 FIP
Road: 107.1 innings, 4.78 ERA, 4.21 FIP
— Giannis Auntiegotapoodle (@TooMuchMortons_) October 13, 2022
There’s nothing more to say about the Dodgers lineup. This is the most dangerous squad in MLB. However, the Padres bullpen has managed to shut them down so far, failing to allow a run so far. That could be very important moving forward.
San Diego Padres Starting Lineup
SS H. Kim R
RF J. Soto L
3B M. Machado R
DH J. Bell S
1B B. Drury R
2B J. Cronenworth L
LF J. Profar S
C A. Nola R
CF J. Azocar R
San Diego Padres vs Tony Gonsolin
Tony Gonsolin was a legit Cy Young contender this season. But he was shut down in late August and has made just one appearance since in a two-inning shutout performance against Colorado. He struck out three in the game.
Gonsolin’s stuff seemed fine. His spin rates and pitch velocities were all consistent in the two-inning performance. However, I do wonder whether Gonsolin is rusty at all.
If Gonsolin isn’t rusty, this game should be a breeze. He allowed just one run and seven hits over 12 ⅓ innings against San Diego this season, good for a 1.17 ERA. He struck out 14 and walked just one in the two games.
There’s a very important note about Gonsolin in this game, however:
Dave Roberts said Tony Gonsolin is built up to around 75 pitches for tomorrow’s Game 3 start. Both Dustin May and Andrew Heaney are available in relief.
— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) October 13, 2022
That might give a slight advantage to the Padres.
Especially when the lineup is hitting so well right now. Manny Machado is on fire, as he has a .941 OPS through his five postseason games so far. The power numbers are coming up for Josh Bell, Juan Soto, and Brandon Drury after a tough end of the season with San Diego.
Don’t mess with the Padres right now.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Pick & Prediction
My pick: San Diego Padres ML (+110)
If you’re going to fade the Dodgers, do it when they’re facing a southpaw. The Dodgers are the deadliest lineup in baseball against righties, with a 119 wRC+, but are much tamer against lefties, with a 113 wRC+. That’s not a massive difference, but it’s discernable enough to put value on the opposing team.
Snell is not only a lefty but a lefty with a history of success against L.A. who has statistically significant home-away splits.
Moreover, Gonsolin being on a pitch count means the Dodgers will be spread slightly thinner in the bullpen. While the Dodgers have the best bullpen in MLB, this doesn’t always include guys like Dustin May and Andrew Heaney in middle relief.
We know the Padres can keep up in the bullpen and on defense, and I think the value is on them as a home underdog today.