Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Matchup Preview (10/14/21): Betting Odds, Starting Lineups, Daily Fantasy Picks
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Matchup Preview (10/14/21): Betting Odds, Starting Lineups, Daily Fantasy Picks
Editor’s Note: The Dodgers announced that Corey Knebel will start today’s game as an opener. Julio Urías is expected to follow him with the same amount of projected innings.
The Dodgers were staring elimination in the face, but Walker Buehler and Mookie Betts came up big to force a Game 5.
MOOKIE BETTS IS GOOD AT BASEBALL
pic.twitter.com/ZfGqfldGv0— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) October 13, 2021
However, the Dodgers now have to overcome another elimination game, but this time against a formidable foe. Logan Webb threw a gem in Game 1, and the Giants are undefeated when he takes the mound at Oracle Park this season.
But the Giants will also face a great starting pitcher in Julio Urías, who posted a sub-3.00 ERA this season while becoming MLB’s only 20-game winner. The Dodgers finished 26-6 in games started by Urías this season.
This is shaping up to be the game of the year. It’s the first time two teams that both won 105+ games have faced off in a playoff series, and they’re now in a winner-take-all game to decide who gets to play for the Pennant.
The line has opened at -110 on both sides, with the total sitting at 7. Our job is to find where the value lies.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Betting Odds
This is such a difficult game to handicap. Neither team seems to have the edge.
The Dodgers are currently pulling more of the bets than the Dodgers, with 61% of the tickets and 69% of the handle on that side. Meanwhile, the under is getting the big money, with less than 50% of the tickets but more than 85% of the handle on under 7.
That’s where I’m going to place my money.
The line is low, but both these starting pitchers have had insane years, and both have posted sub-3.00 xFIPs against their opposition today. I’d characterize Urías and Webb as two of MLB’s most underrated starting pitchers.
Plus, we get an under-leaning umpire behind home plate. Doug Eddings is 265-229 lifetime to the under (53.6%, +12.99 units).
Expect a very low-scoring affair in tonight’s elimination match.
My Pick: Under 7 (-114 at FanDuel)
Los Angeles Dodgers Starting Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
SS Corey Seager L
2B Trea Turner R
3B J. Turner R
C Will Smith R
LF AJ Pollock R
1B Matt Beaty L
CF C. Bellinger L
P Julio Urias L
Los Angeles Dodgers Analysis
This lineup is loaded, but it’s been slightly inconsistent. Although they’ve out-scored the Giants 16-9 during this series, they’ve been shut out twice.
The biggest weapon the Dodgers have is Mookie Betts, who has been lighting up the Giants pitching after an up-and-down season. Betts currently leads both teams in hits this series, with seven, which includes last night’s home run.
You also can’t underestimate his contributions in right field:
HOLY MOOKIE BETTS THROW pic.twitter.com/V3MBeU7VHT
— Blake Harris (@BlakeHHarris) October 10, 2021
Another elite defender is catcher Will Smith. Smith also paces the team in OPS this postseason, at 1.206. He’s already knocked four extra-base hits during the four games (two doubles, two home runs), and he’s crossed home plate four times this series.
But you could inspect this lineup up-and-down and find no weaknesses. The Dodgers’ greatest weapon is their depth, as every batter is a tough out.
The same goes for the pitching staff. The Dodgers are currently missing two of their top rotation guys from the regular season, but their current third starter is Urías, who has been nothing but excellent this season.
The bullpen features solid depth as well, but no reliever in the playoffs is hotter than Kenley Jansen. Jansen has been relied on for two ninth-inning appearances this playoff run – in the Wildcard game and in Game 3 – and he’s struck out all six batters he’s faced.
San Francisco Giants Starting Lineup
1B Darin Ruf R
2B W. Flores R
C Buster Posey R
RF LaMonte Wade L
LF Kris Bryant R
SS B. Crawford L
CF M. Yastrzemski L
3B E. Longoria R
P Logan Webb R
San Francisco Giants Analysis
The Giants are the most well-coached team in baseball. But don’t be fooled by the relative anonymity of their roster, these guys can ball.
Seven of their regular nine-man lineup posted an OPS+ over 100, and then there are five more depth players that have posted an OPS+ above average. That includes Kris Bryant, who came in via a deadline deal with Chicago.
Bryant is the perfect Giant:
KRIS BRYANT BOMB.
Oracle Park is ROCKING 🔊 @BRWalkoff https://t.co/se2aNrpoXi
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 9, 2021
He struggled in the regular season after he came over from Chicago, but he’s the team leader in hits this series with six. That includes a home run and a 1.192 OPS.
On the pitching side, the Giants have taken a bunch of relatively average pitchers and turned them into Cy Young candidates. The biggest example of that is Kevin Gausman, but reliever Tyler Rogers deserves a lot of love. Rogers made 80 relief appearances this year – most in MLB – with a 2.22 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP.
But the best pitcher on the staff is a homegrown guy. Webb is becoming a household name following his game 1 performance, where he tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings with 10 strikeouts and no walks.
But after two years with an ERA above 5.00, Webb found himself in the second half this year. In 96 second-half innings, Webb posted a 2.71 ERA and a 2.69 xFIP, and the Giants won 14 of his 16 second-half starts.
I’m uber-high on Webb and excited to see what the next few years bring him. I believe this is a pitcher who can compete for Cy Young votes next season.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Daily Fantasy Corner
Buster Posey is my top pick for DFS lineups in Game 5.
He’s dangerous at Oracle Park, where he’s batted .311 with a .889 OPS. Plus, he’s already hit a home run there this Postseason.
THE WORLD HAS MISSED PLAYOFF BUSTER POSEY SO MUCH AND HE IS BACK BABY
— Ben Verlander (@BenVerlander) October 9, 2021
But he’s also excellent against southpaws. On the season, Posey has posted a ridiculous 1.051 OPS against that side, going 39-for-106 with nine doubles and six home runs.
So, it’s predictable that Posey has owned this matchup in the past. Lifetime against Urías, Posey is 10-for-20 with four doubles. His 90.8 mph average exit velocity has produced a .525 xSLG in the process.
Plus, if Posey doesn’t perform well against Urías, there’s no bigger clutch hitter in this lineup. He could make some late-game noise tonight in San Francisco.
