Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals (7/14/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction

I absolutely adore this matchup.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are a wagon, and easily field the best roster in baseball. However, they have to travel to face the Cardinals, who continue to field an above-average roster every season despite age, specifically on offense.

So, which team has the edge?

Read on for the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction for this matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Odds

I am not a fan of Dakota Hudson, who is starting for the Cardinals. Meanwhile, Tyler Anderson has been an absolute stud this season.

The Cardinals are great to bet as a home dog, but I think there may be a strike point for the Dodgers as road favorites.

What is that price?

The wind is projected to be blowing straight in during this matchup, so it may be worth looking towards the under. But with Hudson on the mound against a deadly Dodgers lineup, I am not convinced.

Let’s investigate this matchup more.

Los Angeles Dodgers Starting Lineup

T. Anderson L
9-1 3.15 ERA

RF M. Betts R
SS T. Turner R
1B F. Freeman L
C W. Smith R
DH J. Turner R
CF C. Bellinger L
3B M. Muncy L
LF J. Lamb L
2B G. Lux L

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Dakota Hudson

This is why I don’t like Hudson:

Screen Shot 2022 07 13 at 1.04.46 PM

Image credit: Baseball Savant

Hudson doesn’t miss bats and allows tons of hard contact. When he’s not doing those two things, he’s walking over four batters per nine innings. His 2.4% K-BB% is one of the worst in the league.

Yet he’s mostly gotten lucky with his 4.00 ERA. His xERA is around 5.25 and his xFIP is north of 4.75. It seems impressive the Cardinals are 8-9 in his starts.

But with a red-hot offense like the Redbirds have, all you need is a guy that gives you a chance to win.

But it’s going to be very tough to beat the Dodgers with Hudson on the mound. Only the Astros have a hotter offense over the past month, with the Dodgers sitting second in wRC+ (125) and OPS (.799).

Chris Taylor may be on the IL, but the Dodgers have plenty of deep bench bats to deal with that.

And after a 9-2 month of July so far, the Dodgers have built a surprise lead in the NL West. It wasn’t long ago the Padres were a game ahead of those Dodgers, and the best team in the National League has fought back.

St. Louis Cardinals Starting Lineup

D. Hudson R
6-5 4.00 ERA

2B T. Edman S
CF D. Carlson S
1B P. Goldschmidt R
3B N. Arenado R
LF J. Yepez R
DH A. Pujols R
SS E. Sosa R
RF B. Donovan L
C A. Romine R

St. Louis Cardinals vs Tyler Anderson

The Dodgers pitching development team is fantastic. They churn out incredible pitchers year after year in L.A.

This year’s flavor is Anderson, alongside Tony Gonsolin.

Anderson has just been consistent. He went through a 24-inning scoreless streak, but he’s paired his 3.15 ERA with a 3.16 xERA and has accumulated 2.0 fWAR in the process. The Dodgers win a lot, but it’s impressive they’re 12-4 in Anderson’s starts this season.

Compare Anderson’s Baseball Savant page to Hudson’s, and you can see why I’m much higher on the Dodgers in this game:

Screen Shot 2022 07 13 at 1.03.53 PM

Image credit: Baseball Savant

The scary thing for Anderson here is that the Cardinals mash lefties (118 wRC+) and they especially mash lefties at home (143 wRC+). But those numbers have come down slightly over the past month and MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt has been slumping just slightly.

Goldy has just a .691 OPS this month without a single home run. His BABIP during the stretch is .406 as well, so it’s not like he’s been unlucky. You can see his expected slugging rates have dropped slightly month-over-month this season, although some level of regression was expected. It’s also intriguing that everyone has stopped throwing him offspeed stuff, showing pitchers have adjusted slightly.

chart 2022 07 13T130037.059

Image credit: Baseball Savant

But Goldy was so high, he needed to come back to earth for a bit. Hopefully, he keeps his OPS above 1.000 for the rest of the season and certifies himself as a worthy MVP candidate.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick & Prediction

My picks: Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-145 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

This line is already starting to move the Dodgers’ way, and I’ll always back the sharp money looking for Closing Line Value.

I can’t back Hudson in good faith. His batted-ball statistics are so poor and there’s nothing to really like about his game. I think the Dodgers could slam him at Busch Stadium.

In the meanwhile, look for Anderson to keep the Dodgers competitive.

The Cardinals’ bullpen has been great recently, but the Dodgers boast a consistent top-five relief core (even if it hasn’t felt that way recently). So, I can’t give any edge to St. Louis in that department.

The Cardinals’ defense has been surprisingly poor as well. After boasting arguably the best defense in baseball over the last three seasons, they are seventh in Defensive Runs Saved this season. In the meanwhile, the Dodgers are third.

At anything less than -150, I’ll be on the Dodgers in this one.

Tanner joined Lineups to cover everything, but he has vast experience in, and unlimited passion for, Major League Baseball and NCAA Basketball. He’s a McGill University grad and former (Canadian) Division-I alpine ski racer who now spends his time drinking beer and betting home underdogs. Patrick Mahomes is a poor man’s Tom Brady.

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