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Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Picks
The Los Angeles Rams (4-6) visit their NFC West division rival the Arizona Cardinals (2-9) on Sunday (11/26/23) at 4:05 p.m. EST. The Rams defeated the Cardinals 26-9 at home back in week 6, but that was before Kyler Murray returned from injury for Arizona. Now Murray is back, and the Rams could be without Cooper Kupp, both of which certainly impact the best player prop bets in this matchup. This article analyzes the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and recommends the best Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals player prop bets.
Trey McBride over 48.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Trey McBride is finally starting to show the potential that made him the 55th overall draft pick in the 2022 draft. He has taken on a much bigger role in the Cardinals’ offense with Zach Ertz on IR, and he has delivered with several big games over the last few weeks.
McBride has over 60 receiving yards in three of his last six games and is averaging 63.7 yards per game over that span. When the Cardinals played the Rams in Week 6, Ertz was still active and yet McBride had 4 catches on five targets for 62 yards in that game. He has had at least five targets in every game since then.
The Rams have yielded some big games to tight ends this season. They are allowing the 9th most yards per game to opposing tight endsand have allowed a tight end to go over his receiving yards prop line in four of their last five games. They have given up at least 50 receiving yards to a tight end twice. Dallas Goedert had 117 in Week 5 and Luke Musgrave had 51 in Week 9, while Jake Ferguson also came very close with 47 yards in Week 8.
With his draft pedigree and the way he’s been playing recently, McBride is absolutely a similar caliber player as Ferguson and Musgrave, if not better. The return of Kyler Murray only helps McBride, who had 131 yards in his first game with Murray and is averaging 87 yards per game in his two games with Murray. He is leading the Cardinals in both receptions and receiving yards since Murray returned.
In a favorable matchup, we love the chances for McBride to continue his ascent and have another excellent game this week.
James Conner over 8.5 receiving yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Conner has been a very good pass-catching RB throughout his career, but he has barely been involved at all in the Cardinals’ passing game this season. He has only gone over 8.5 receiving yards once in his 7 games and has just 2 catches for 1 yard in his 2 games since returning from injury.
We don’t think Conner simply forgot how to catch the ball, nor did the Cardinals forget that he’s capable of doing so. His lack of passing game involvement is a bit puzzling considering he is staying on the field on passing downs. He has led Cardinals RBs in passing down snaps in every game he’s played besides the one in which he got injured.
It seems like Conner is due for some positive regression in the receiving game, and there is some value on betting that it happens this week. This prop line is depressed because of his recent performance. It’s the first time this season that his receiving prop is in the single digits. It was never lower than 18.5 yards last season, and he hit the over eight times in 12 games. He also had fewer than 10 receiving yards only once last season, and that was a game in which he got hurt and left early.
The biggest risk with this pick besides Conner’s recent production is that the Rams are allowing the fewest receiving yards per game to opposing RBs this season. Still, they are allowing 19.1 yards per game, and if the Cardinals come close to that number, there is a very good chance that Conner gains at least 9 yards. This line is simply too low for a player of Conner’s ability, regardless of his performance this season.
Puka Nacua over 59.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
This pick is a bit of a hedge against the health of star WR Cooper Kupp, who sprained his ankle last week but is expected to play this week. While it’s encouraging that Kupp has already been declared active for the game as of Friday, ankle injuries can be tricky and can easily be aggravated. Kupp also had been quiet in his three previous games before the injury, totaling just eight catches for 98 yards over that span.
After his monster start to his career, Nacua has slowed down considerably since Kupp returned in Week 5, but he still has at least 60 receiving yards in three of the six games he’s played alongside Kupp. When these teams played in Week 6, Kupp went off for 148 receiving yards while Nacua had just 26 yards. We expect a more balanced distribution this time around, and if Kupp is less than 100% then Nacua is likely to lead the team in receiving yards this week.
Even if Kupp is healthy and leads the team in targets, receptions and yards, Nacua has still has a chance to hit the over on this number. The Cardinals’ passing defense is 28th or worse in DVOA, EPA, and success rate. That makes this pick a solid value at a relatively low number for Nacua.