Get Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions First Touchdown picks & odds for the (01/14/24) matchup as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Sunday’s game.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions First Touchdown Search Tool
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions First Touchdown Picks
The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which player will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score the first touchdown in the Rams vs. Lions matchup?
Puka Nacua First Touchdown (+1100 FanDuel)
Scoring opportunities will be abundant for both teams entering this contest as oddsmakers set the total at 49.5. Bettors were quick to be in agreement, betting the over up to as high as 51.5 in some shops. As for how the Rams will do their part towards the scoring department, expect a heavy dose of the pass as Matthew Stafford gets the chance to shred a very weak Detroit secondary who has struggled in coverage.
It’s not just bad for the Lions back end, it’s near league worst as they enter the contest ranked 25th in Def Pass EPA and 25th in Def Pass Success Rate. That means they routinely allow opposing offenses to get half the distance to gain on early downs between the 20’s and often allow touchdowns in the red zone. The return of CJ Gardner-Johnson helps, though the Lions secondary will still struggle against the duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
Focusing on those two previously mentioned Rams receivers for a first touchdown scorer prop, Puka serves as the more interesting choice as he may benefit from more single coverage. While carving out a role as a true go-to threat, Cooper Kupp still commands a brunt of defensive attention as a superstar receiver in his own right. That opens up more gaps for Puka to exploit, being able to burn any singular coverage against a weak Lions secondary.
Better yet for the chances of cashing this, Kyren Williams and the Rams ground game will be expected to struggle against a stout Lions front seven. The Lions come into this contest ranked first in Def Rush DVOA, fourth in Def Rush EPA, eighth in Def Rush Success Rate, and sixth in Def Adjusted Line Yards. They contain production in the trenches, being more than capable of limiting Williams as well.
Brock Wright First Touchdown (+2500 FanDuel)
This prop is heavily dependent on the status of Sam LaPorta, the Lions star rookie tight end who suffered an injury in week 18 against the Minnesota Vikings. While originally believed to be out for a minimum of two weeks, LaPorta has been recently trending towards potentially giving it a go for this playoff matchup.
BROCK WRIGHT SZN 🤯 pic.twitter.com/lhlTu3Llxp
— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) November 15, 2023
With LaPorta most likely out, Lions’ tight ends Brock Wright and James Mitchell will get a heavier workload in the pass attack. That bodes well for their chances of cashing this prop, benefiting from lackluster coverage while the Rams zero in on Amon-Ra St Brown and Jameson Williams. The Lions pass attack has been pristine over the course of the season, ranking seventh in Pass DVOA, fifth in Pass Success Rate, and seventh in Pass EPA.
Better yet, the Lions pass attack should thrive once again as Jared Goff gets the benefit of a clean pocket for a majority of this contest. The Lions offensive line is one of the best units in the league, ranking fourth in Adjusted Sack Rate. They now get the opportunity to dominate once again as the Rams defensive front four has been a weakness, ranking a lowly 21st in Def Adjusted Sack Rate.
David Montgomery First Touchdown (+750 MGM)
In a game that is expected to be a high scoring affair, maximizing on scoring opportunities is vital. That means potentially opting into the run instead of a potential turnover worthy play through the air. That makes for an intriguing thought when correlating it to the Lions offense as they have the benefit of fielding two game changing running backs.
David Montgomery potentially serves as the better option in this matchup as he is more of a bull type back and faces a tough Rams linebacking unit and a weak front four. The Rams front seven ranks 13th in Def Rush EPA and 11th in Def Rush Success Rate, yet a lowly 21st in Def Adjusted Line Yards.
That means Montgomery should face minimal resistance when he enters the trenches, using his bruising type running ability to churn out extra yards once he gets to the second level of the defense. He played a major part of their red zone offense earlier in the year before suffering an injury, now getting the opportunity to show out once again as he takes advantage of a weak front four as their go-to goal line back.