Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions NFL Player Props & Picks (1/14/24)
Get Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions player prop picks & odds for the (1/14/24) matchup.
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Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Picks
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions kicks off this Sunday at 8:00pm EST in Detroit, MI as a home game for the Lions. The Rams are currently a +3 underdog and +140 on the moneyline, while the total is set at 51.5. Expect Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff to put on a show while David Montgomery is poised to punch one in, all giving value as player props for this Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions matchup.
Matthew Stafford Over 272.5 Passing Yards
Matthew Stafford makes his return to Detroit to win a playoff game at Ford Field — something he never did during his tenure with the Lions. After being traded in 2021, Stafford found immediate success with the Rams, leading them to a Super Bowl 56 victory. He now looks to make another run for the Super Bowl, having to do so at the expense of Lions fans who spent a majority of their lives rooting for him.
Worse yet for Lions fans, Stafford is in a great position to succeed in this matchup as the Lions secondary have been abysmal in coverage. The Lions back end enters the contest ranked 16th in Def Pass DVOA, 25th in Def Pass EPA, and 25th in Def Pass Success Rate. When their front four is not generating pressure, opposing quarterbacks have had no issue with shredding the gaps in coverage.
To make matters worse, the Rams field arguably the best receiving duo in football when it comes to getting separation. Both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have excelled with their elite route running and separation abilities, now both being in a position to exploit the gaps in coverage for sizable gains at a time. The Rams enter the contest ranked ninth in Pass DVOA and 11th in Pass EPA.
Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Not only will Stafford succeed between the 20s, but his arm will likely be called upon when the Rams enter the red zone. While this is normally an area where the Rams rely on their star running back Kyren Williams, the Lions field a dominant run stopping unit who is more than capable of holding Williams’ production in the trenches.
The Lions front seven comes into the contest ranked first in Def. Rush DVOA, fourth in Def. Rush EPA, eighth in Def. Rush Success Rate, and sixth in Def Adjusted Line Yards. With Williams most likely being bottled up, the Rams may opt into more pass attempts when inside the 20 to the benefit of this over.
Jared Goff Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Stafford isn’t the only quarterback in a position to cash his passing touchdowns over prop as Goff will have plenty of opportunities as well. With a total set at 51.5 as of writing, this game will feature plenty of scoring opportunities for both teams in what is projected to be a high scoring affair.
Jared Goff hits Sam LaPorta wide open for the TD 🎯
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) January 7, 2024
The Rams defense has been a rollercoaster of production for a majority of the season, starting near dead last in Def. DVOA and climbing to near league average to finish the season. Their DVOA marks are still underwhelming, ranking 21st in Def DVOA and 20th in Def. Rush DVOA. That said, their mid field success has improved to as high as 12th in Def Pass Success Rate and 11th in Def Rush Success Rate.
One glaring issue that the Rams do have is that they still struggle to contain pass success when backed up into the red zone. The Rams back end ranks 18th in Def. Pass EPA and is in a position to get picked apart by one of the better pass attacks in the league. Especially with the Rams defensive front four ranking 21st in Def Adjusted Sack Rate, giving Goff a clean pocket and extra time for his pass catchers to create separation.
David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown
David Montgomery may have taken a back seat to Jahmyr Gibbs toward the end of the season, but he still serves as the better option for rush success against this Rams front seven. The Rams rank above average in Def Rush EPA and Success Rate, yet 21st in Adjusted Line Yards which means bull type backs face little resistance once they enter the trenches. Expect Montgomery to burst through the contact against a stacked Rams interior defense, punching it into the end zone when near the goal line.
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