Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions kicks off this Sunday (1/14/24) at 8:00pm EST in Detroit Michigan as a home game for the Lions. Get Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions predictions and best bets below as our best bet is on the over 51.5 in what will be a high scoring affair.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions Prediction & Best Bet
Matthew Stafford makes his return to Detroit as the Lions host their first playoff game since 1994. The game is riddled with storylines as Jared Goff faces his former team as well, having all the makings for an instant classic. As if the storylines were not juicy enough, this game should feature plenty of scoring as both offenses are in a position to consistently get into scoring position against two lackluster defenses.
Starting with the Lions, their offense has carried them to success throughout the course of the season as their defense has given them no favors. Jared Goff has remained hyper efficient when in the comfort of a dome, now getting the setting of his desire due to hosting this game. He leads the Lions pass attack to impressive metrics of seventh in Pass DVOA, fifth in Pass Success Rate, and seventh in Pass EPA. Even without Sam LaPorta, Goff will find himself surrounded by plenty of weapons.
His impressive metrics are supported by the strength of the Lions offensive line, which is one of the best in the league. The Lions offensive line comes into this contest ranked fourth in Adjusted Sack Rate, and first in Adjusted Line Yards. They are in a position to thrive once again as the Rams front four have been a weak point for their defense, ranking 21st in Def Adjusted Sack Rate and Line Yards.
As for the Rams ability to do their part for the over, expect a heavy dose of the pass as Stafford looks to shred one of the weakest secondaries in football. The Lions back end ranks 25th in Def Pass EPA and Success Rate, meaning that they struggle to defend at every level of the field. They now need to find success in a pinch against an offense that features star receiver Cooper Kupp and emerging rookie sensation Puka Nacua in a pass attack that ranks ninth in Pass DVOA.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions Prediction & Best Bet: Over 51.5
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds
Oddsmakers opened the Lions as -5 favorites. Bettors found this line to be a massive overreaction, betting the Rams down to as low as +3 in some shops. The Lions defensive woes will keep the Rams within scoring pace, giving value to LA at the key number of +3.
As for the total, oddsmakers believed points would be scored at a quick rate as they opened the number at 51. Bettors believe points may come at a slightly quicker rate, backing the over up to 51.5 as of writing. That sits right below the secondary key number of 52, giving value to the over at no higher than that key number in what should be a high scoring affair.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions Key Injuries
While the Rams come into this contest fairly healthy, the Lions come into this ravaged by week 18 injuries. Sam LaPorta and Kalif Raymond are currently listed as questionable, yet expectations have them being ruled out by kickoff.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions Key Matchups
Can the Lions running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery find success against the Rams front seven?
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery Vs. Rams Front Seven
Not only is the Lions pass attack in a position to succeed, but their ground game is as well. This is in large part of fielding one of the best running back duos in football with Jahmyr Gibbs being an explosive dual threat back and David Montgomery playing as their bull back.
Jahmyr Gibbs with his 10th Rushing TD this season 🔥
— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) January 7, 2024
They are in a position to thrive once again as the Rams front seven ranks 20th in Def Rush DVOA. Their front four routinely allows opposing running backs to reach the trenches with minimal contact due to their low Def Adjusted Line Yards ranking, giving both backs the chance to churn out chunks at a time to help stay ahead of the sticks.
Los Angeles Rams Depth Chart
Detroit Lions Depth Chart
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