The New York Giants might be eliminated from postseason contention, but there’s still plenty to play for as the team begins to figure out its 2024 roster. Meanwhile, the surging Los Angeles Rams have every intention of making another playoff run, so they positively need this win. Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua are just a few of the biggest names on display in this one, so let’s get into some Rams vs. Giants player prop picks & odds for this (12/31/23) matchup.
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Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants Player Prop Picks
The Los Angeles offense is firing on all cylinders right now and should get to work against one of the league’s worst defenses, while the Giants will look to pass on a shaky Rams secondary.
Kyren Williams Over 93.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
If the large number makes you feel like this is an instance of buying high, you’re not entirely wrong. But there’s plenty of reason to believe that this is not the top of the market. Williams has been over this number in five of his past six games, and the other outing he was still fairly close with a total of 88 ground yards.
Williams is now second in the NFL in rushing yardage, and he might be extremely close to Christian McCaffrey if he had played in more than 11 games thus far. Clearly, his role has expanded to the point where he can expect plenty of volume on a weekly basis.
That should ring especially true this week, as the Rams play a hapless Giants team. Los Angeles should lead for vast swaths of time, which of course leads to an increased workload for running backs. Still, with a number this high, Williams will need more than just a high total of carries. He’ll need to find success with them.
That shouldn’t be too much of a stretch. The Giants run defense ranks 27th by DVOA, 26th by EPA and 24th by success rate, making them one of the worst units in the league. Comparatively, the LA rushing offense is seventh, seventh and sixth by those three metrics. Paired with a pass New York defense that is trending up, expect the Rams to go to the ground early, often, and successfully.
Saquon Barkley Over 2.5 Receptions (-130)
Conversely to the Williams prop, this is a great opportunity to buy low, as Barkley has been a bit cold in the receiving department of late, but has been over this total in nine of his 12 outings this season. This game should be no different, as the Giants should be trailing for most of the time, but they’ll want to get their best and most dynamic playmaker involved regardless.
Barkley is more than capable of getting involved through the air, and Brian Daboll should be aware that he can make a big impact against this Rams defense. Los Angeles ranks 21st in DVOA against the pass, so he should be able to find space in the short field and even against the secondary if the playcalling gives him the chance.
With Tyrod Taylor taking the reins, he’ll be grateful to have a reliable checkdown option like Barkley, who should have a very productive day providing his quarterback with high-percentage pass opportunities.
Puka Nacua Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Rams’ passing offense is absolutely firing on all cylinders right now, as they’ve steamed up to sixth-best in the NFL by DVOA. Matthew Stafford is healthy and absolutely dealing, and he’s working with one of the best wideout duos he’s ever had at his disposal. One half of that pair is of course rams legend Cooper Kupp, and the other is breakout rookie Puka Nacua.
Let’s focus in on the latter, whose receiving total is set at a very manageable 71.5 yards. He’s been over that number in three of his past four games, and was still fairly productive in the fourth outing, as he caught five passes for 50 yards.
We’re focusing on yardage rather than total catches due to both the overall and positional matchup. The Giants’ pass defense is a notch better than their ground unit but it still isn’t strong. They’re 20th by DVOA and just 28th by success rate allowed, so Nacua could easily crack this with just a few big plays. In a game where the Rams could pull away quickly, Puka’s day could end just as fast, so let’s bet on him to make a few opportunities really count.
Lucas Havrisik Over 2.5 Extra Points Made (-115)
Kicker picks are often very situationally-based, and this one is absolutely no exception. This is essentially a prop for how many touchdowns the Rams will score, but we’re getting some great value because it hasn’t behaved that way in recent weeks.
Havrisik has been over this number in two of his past three games, but the Rams have scored three or more touchdowns in five straight games. Various strange circumstances have continuously forced them to go for two after they score, but that isn’t consistently the case- especially in a game where the Rams should pull away and make the math irrelevant.
The Rams are ninth in red-zone percentage, finishing just under 60% of their drives inside the opponent’s 20-yard line with touchdowns, with that figure somehow looking slightly better on the road. Meanwhile, the Giants are 23rd in defensive red zone efficiency, with a number also just under 60%. The Rams should be able to move the ball, and have no trouble finishing those drives with touchdowns. Expect Havrisik to convert plenty of point-after tries.