Louisville and Virginia are very similar teams.
Both are mediocre ACC squads carried by their NFL prospect quarterbacks. Neither has a good defense and both are 2-3 entering the game.
But Louisville has a signature win over UCF on its resume. Virginia just lost by three touchdowns to Duke.
But we can’t make a wager on that information alone.
Let’s break it down. Read on for our Louisville Cardinals vs Virginia Cavaliers Broncos odds, picks, and predictions.
Louisville Cardinals vs Virginia Cavaliers Odds
Virginia has taken all the money. This line opened at LOU -5.5 and has been hammered by sharp money, bringing the number down to LOU -3.
Surprisingly, all the public money is on the Cardinals. That means we’re getting significant reverse line movement on Virginia, and we need to pay attention.
The under has taken sharp money too and I still show value on the under 50.5 at the time of writing.
But let’s dissect this matchup a little more.
Louisville Cardinals vs Virginia Cavaliers Prediction & Pick
In the end, this is one quarterback pitted against the other.
Louisville has Malik Cunningham, who is one of the more electric quarterbacks in college football. He’s managed to keep his Cardinals in most games by accounting for almost all the yards.
Cunningham might be concussed. That’s a huge problem for Louisville.
Meanwhile, Virginia has Brennan Armstrong. Armstrong has been fine, but his offensive line is horrendous, ranking 129th in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades and 94th in Havoc allowed. The defense lives in Armstrong’s backfield and there is nothing he can do about it. He’s been sacked 13 times in just five games.
Virginia can actually run the ball, however, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and ranking top-40 in Rush Success Rate.
With a decent run game and Cunningham either being injured or hurt, I’m riding with Virginia in this one.
Louisville Cardinals vs Virginia Cavaliers Key Matchups
Key Matchup: Virginia’s Run Game against Louisville’s Run Defense
While Virginia has been a decent rush offense, Louisville’s weakness is their rush defense. The Cardinals are poor on the defensive line and rank 94th in Rush Success Rate allowed. They are allowing 160 rush yards per game at 4.3 yards per carry.
If Virginia runs all over Louisville, it won’t matter who is starting for the Cardinals. Watch out for this matchup closely.
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