Louisville vs Boston College Odds, Picks, Predictions (10/1/22)

Both these teams look suspicious entering this game.

Louisville had an unreal showing at the Bounce House in a road win over UCF but also faltered in games against Florida State and Syracuse.

Boston College is 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS, and the offense looks like an absolute mess.

The Eagles have been so bad that they’re catching over two touchdowns at home in this matchup.

Is that too many points?

Let’s break it down. Read on for our Louisville Cardinals vs Boston College Eagles odds, picks, and predictions.

Louisville Cardinals vs Boston College Eagles

The Eagles actually opened as 16.5-point underdogs but have taken all the sharp money, being bet down to 14.5 at the time of writing.

The market is telling us this might be too many points for BC.

Meanwhile, the over has taken some sharp money, being pushed up a half-point from the opener.

Louisville Cardinals vs Boston College Eagles Prediction & Pick

Both teams are quarterback reliant.

Louisville is almost dependent on Malik Cunningham. He’s accounted for 65% of the Cardinals’ total yards. He’s been able to will Louisville to top-20 rates in Explosiveness.

But the Cardinals have struggled outside of that. Specifically against the run on defense, where the Cardinals rank outside the top 100 in both Rush Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line yards.

Plus, Cunningham isn’t the most efficient thrower, with the team ranking 93rd in Pass Success Rate this season.

But anything is better than that mess in Chestnut Hill. The Eagles have the worst offensive line in the nation and NFL prospect Phil Jurkovec – upon whose shoulders the hopes of Eagles faithful rest – has been abused this season. He’s been sacked 13 times in four games and only five FBS quarterbacks have been under pressure more this season (64 dropbacks).

Jurkovec is a great talent, but his numbers have taken a hit because his team can’t run the ball and can’t protect him. He’s consistently behind the chains while the opposing defense lives in the backfield.

But the Eagles have been alright defensively, even ranking top-45 in Rush Success Rate and Defensive Line Yards.

I think the Eagles’ defense keeps them within two touchdowns on Saturday. This is too many points for a Louisville team that doesn’t do enough right.

Perhaps the Eagles can get something going on the ground against Louisville. Perhaps Jurkovec can find something against an Eagles secondary that, while efficient in terms of Success Rate allowed, ranks 97th in PFF’s coverage grades.

Either way, this spread is too large. I’d make this Louisville -9 and I will roll with the Eagles.

Louisville Cardinals vs Boston College Eagles Key Matchups

Key Matchup: Phil Jurkovec vs Louisville’s Havoc

If Boston College can’t move the ball on the ground, Jurkovec is going to have to throw.

The Louisville defense isn’t great in the front seven, and are especially bad against the run, but they have been able to create Havoc at a top-35 rate.

Jurkovec has been poor against pressure but has managed to avoid turnovers. But if he can’t move the ball, or Louisville gets home and does force turnovers, this game could get ugly in a hurry.

I’m hoping that doesn’t happen.