Louisville vs. Pittsburgh: Prediction & Odds (10/14/23)

Louisville and Pittsburgh showdown at 6:30 PM EST in what is slated to be an ACC college football showdown. Louisville is looking to build on an upset win over Notre Dame and stay undefeated, while Pittsburgh is just trying to find its first FBS win of the season. The Cardinals are 7.5-point favorites and sit -310 on the moneyline entering Saturday’s matchup against the Panthers.

Louisville vs. Pittsburgh Prediction & Best Bet

Holding this line back is the simple fact Louisville has played three close games on the road. Still, it’s worth looking back at the Cardinals’ 21-14 win over Indiana here. Louisville went up 21-0 in the first half, had some defensive lapses in the third quarter, and then settled back in to win by a touchdown.

While it’s surprising to hear just two years removed from an ACC title, Pitt is in a similar realm as Indiana this season. The Panthers have all kinds of questions at quarterback and have allowed a total of 79 points over the last two weeks.

Louisville has proven it has the capability of blowing out a team like this one, and betting on the Cardinals to win by 8+ points is just a bet that they will put it all together long enough to win comfortably. With confidence at an all-time high after a win over Notre Dame, that should be the case.

Pitt’s defense has notched just one interception this season, including none against FCS Wofford, so Jack Plummer’s turnover issues shouldn’t resurface in this game. If Louisville isn’t turning over the ball, it’s hard to see how this is a close game.

Louisville vs. Pittsburgh Prediction & Best Bet: Louisville -7.5

Louisville vs. Pittsburgh Betting Odds

Louisville is favored by 7.5 points on the road, entering at -310 on the moneyline. The over/under is 45 points.

Is Louisville this year’s TCU? The Cardinals look like one of the ACC’s best teams in year one under Jeff Brohm, and last week’s win over Notre Dame proved it’s not just a product of their competition. Even if it was, Pitt squarely falls into the category of weak competition. The Panthers are still seeking their first FCS win after dropping four consecutive games.

Louisville vs. Pittsburgh Key Matchups

Here are the key matchups that could decide Saturday’s game between Michigan and Nebraska.

Christian Veilleux vs. Louisville Pass Defense

Pitt is making the full-time switch from Phil Jurkovec at quarterback to Christian Veillieux, in hopes of sparking an offense that has been dormant just about all season. The Panthers are going to have to lean on Veillieux this week, particularly if they fall in a hole early and need to climb out of it.

Louisville has a strong run defense, allowing only 3.2 yards per carry, so it’s going to be on Pitt’s passing game to get something done. Fortunately for Pitt, the Cardinals’ pass defense hasn’t been as stellar, ranking near the middle of the pack in the FBS in yards per pass attempt.

Veillieux entered against UNC in September and looked uncomfortable, throwing two picks and completing under 40 percent of his passes. He’s thrown only 36 passes in his collegiate career. Even with Louisville’s middling pass defense, it’s going to be an uphill battle for Veillieux to keep Pitt in this game to the end.

Louisville vs. Acrisure Stadium Crowd

If this line seems odd to you, take a look at Louisville’s road results this season. The Cardinals won by five at Georgia Tech, seven at Indiana, and three at NC State. This is a group very much still learning how to start strong on the road; they outscored Georgia Tech 26-6 in the second half of that win, so it clearly takes some time for Louisville to settle in.

At home, it’s been a different story. Louisville has coasted to wins over FCS Murray State and Boston College while pulling away from Notre Dame late. The Cardinals should win this game. Is Pitt flawed enough for Louisville to overcome its road woes and win comfortably?

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