NCAAF LSU vs. Georgia Predictions, Picks, Odds (12/3/22)

While Tennessee made it interesting, few had doubts before the season that Georgia would be here playing for an SEC title in early December. Almost no one believed LSU would be on the other sideline. The Tigers beat out Alabama and won the SEC West in Brian Kelly’s first season, and they’ll look for an even bigger upset this weekend against the defending national champions.

Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks and predictions for Saturday’s SEC title game in Atlanta.

LSU vs. Georgia Odds

Georgia enters as a heavy 17.5-point favorite over LSU, sitting at -950 on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 51 points.

This line started out closer to 15 points when the matchup was first locked in, but LSU’s ugly loss to Texas A&M has shifted it even further in Georgia’s direction. For the sake of entertainment, hopefully the Tigers’ loss serves as a wake-up call. Georgia hasn’t lost since last year’s SEC Championship and has made a habit of blowing teams out, though not as utterly dominant as last season.

LSU vs. Georgia Prediction & Pick

For whatever reason, Jayden Daniels and the LSU offense just haven’t been the same since the win over Alabama, scoring 13 and 23 points against their two power-five opponents since that game. It’s going to be tough to turn the ship around against a great Georgia defense.

The Bulldogs’ offense hasn’t been dominant at all times this season, but the way LSU struggled to contain Texas A&M’s Devon Achane on the ground has to create some concern considering the way Georgia knows how to run the ball. With a wealth of options offensively and a defense that has brought the SEC’s best quarterbacks down to Earth this season, this feels like a blowout waiting to happen.

Georgia -17.5 is my pick with the Atlanta crowd backing the Bulldogs.

LSU vs. Georgia Key Matchups

So much of what LSU does offensively runs through Jayden Daniels’ mobility. LSU scored just 13 points in each of Daniels’ two worst rushing performances of the season – against Tennessee and Arkansas. That should be a cause for concern against Georgia. The Bulldogs have the nation’s second-best run defense and have made life difficult for rushing attacks all season.

Georgia has already faced a quarterback with a style of play that mirrors Daniels. Florida’s Anthony Richardson was held to 19 yards on 11 rushing attempts against the Bulldogs. In fact, the Gators were limited to 100 total rushing yards in the loss. If Georgia can clamp down on Daniels’ rushing ability, the pressure will be on his arm to deliver against a Bulldogs defense that shut down Hendon Hooker and Will Levis earlier this month.

It feels like the running game will be the focus for LSU’s defense as well. The Tigers have had a middle-of-the-pack run defense this year, but allowing Achane to run for more than 200 yards is a cause for concern, particularly when the gameplan was (hopefully) focused on him. LSU has had some success against other big-name running backs, including Raheim Sanders and Quinshon Judkins, but the Tigers had trouble with Florida QB Anthony Richardson earlier in the year.

You might not even know the name of a Georgia running back, and that’s by design. The Bulldogs rotate Kenny McIntosh, Daijun Edwards, and Kendall Milton out of the backfield, and together the trio has 1,678 yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground this season. Between the potent running game and the presence of Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey in the passing game, LSU’s defense has an extremely difficult task.

Georgia does have a tendency to start slowly offensively, so there could be a window for LSU to make a statement early on. If Georgia scores quickly, it could be a sign this game will get out of hand.