LSU vs. Missouri kicks off this Saturday at 12:00pm EST in Columbia as a home game for the Tigers. LSU is currently a -6.5 favorite and -250 on the moneyline while the total is set at 64.5. Read on for more LSU vs. Missouri best bets and predictions as Missouri looks to cover the spread and potential pull off the upset.
LSU Vs. Missouri Prediction & Best Bet
No team in college football has disappointed more than the LSU Tigers in terms of preseason expectations. Being pegged as a potential National Championship contender, the Tigers have fallen flat on their faces by starting the season 3-2. While they can still contend for the SEC championship with a win over Alabama and another loss for Ole Miss, their national title hopes have all but vanished unless other contenders all beat up on each other.
As for Missouri, they have performed well above expectations as they are now one win away from at least tying their regular season win total. They opened at a flat six before steaming up to 6.5, now readjusted to a 7.5 that’s juice towards the over. A win over LSU would be massive for preseason RSW total holders, giving plenty of hedge spots later in the year against inferior competition as decent sized favorites.
As for how this game shapes up, Missouri is in a good spot to keep up with the LSU scoring pace. Almost all their offensive production comes off the arm of quarterback Brady Cook, a gunslinger who has thrown for 1,468 yards, 11 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He’s also added another three touchdowns with his legs, serving as a dual threat option when near the end zone.
That type of dual threat ability will once again need to shine as they will need to keep up with the LSU scoring pace. It’s all gas no brakes when it comes to playing LSU as their offense and defensive metrics are night and day. LSU currently ranks 30th or better in Off Success Rate, Explosiveness, Points per Opportunity, and Havoc. As for the defensive side of things, those metrics drastically drop to 100th in Def Success Rate, 120th in Explosiveness, and 130th in Points per Opportunity.
It’s not just an inefficiency in one area for the defense as LSU mightily struggles to defend both the pass and ground game. Injuries have derailed this secondary from the start of the season and are once again poised to get burned through the air. With Brady Cook under center, Missouri ranks 14th in Pass Success Rate, 10th in Pass PPA, and 40th in Pass Explosiveness. Expect Missouri to move the ball with ease down the field, benefiting from shortened distances to gain and capitalize in scoring opportunities.
LSU Vs. Missouri Prediction & Best Bet: Missouri +6.5
LSU Vs. Missouri Betting Odds
After being set as a -8 favorite, LSU re-opened at -6.5 on Sunday after their loss to Ole Miss. Bettors have started to believe in Missouri’s chances as well, taking them down to +6 in some shops. The spread has yet to crash any lower, bouncing between +6 and +6.5. While I normally preach patience and grab key football numbers, it’s becoming clearer that this will not get back to +7 and I am perfectly fine with a +6.5.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a lightning quick pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 58.5. Bettors believe points will come at an even quicker pace, betting the over up to as high as 64.5 as of writing. A drastic increase, yet justifiable as defense may be optional as both offenses should find success with ease.
LSU Vs. Missouri Key Matchups
Can Missouri limit the production of Jayden Daniels?
Jayden Daniels Vs. Missouri Linebacking Unit
While it’s near impossible to stop the LSU offense, Missouri will greatly benefit from at least disrupting Jayden Daniels rhythm. Any stalled-out drive or early out creates a massive swing towards Missouri’s favor, giving them the ability to pad a lead while draining time off the clock.
Jayden Daniels got hit with the hit stick 😳 😤
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 30, 2023
As for how they can do this, we may see Missouri settle into more 3-3-5 sets in an attempt to stretch their coverage across the field and send in their linebackers to plug the gaps. This disrupted the Georgia offense last season, now using it in desperation in an attempt to shadow the passing lanes. This also allows Missouri to screen down the sides should Daniels try to bounce out in scrambling situations.