LSU vs Alabama: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (1/19/22)

LSU vs Alabama Betting Odds

The LSU is starting to cannibalize itself.

LSU comes into this game coming off a loss to Arkansas. Meanwhile, Alabama comes into this game coming off three straight losses – to Missouri, Auburn, and Mississippi State.

Currently, these two teams sit at 3-2 and 2-3, respectively. While Auburn is clearly the cream of the crop in the conference, there’s a lot of room for movement in the upper echelon. Therefore, this game could have serious implications come late February.

So, which team has the edge in Tuscaloosa Wednesday night?

LSU Tigers Betting Odds

LSU is still the best defense in the nation. However, the Tigers were due for a loss against Arkansas, and negative regression will continue to come for this team.

LSU is allowing the eighth-highest 3-point rate in the nation, but those opponents are hitting those shots at just a 26.4% rate. That’s a crazy unsustainable number.

Additionally, there’s some potential negative regression coming on the offensive end as well. The Tigers hit just 5 of their 19 3-point attempts against Arkansas (26.3%). However, Will Wade’s offense is mostly interior-based, so I’m not expecting too much regression on that end.

Moreover, the Tigers aren’t even that efficient on the offensive end. Their .834 half-court points per possession rank in just the 28th percentile among Division-I teams.

Either way, ShotQuality’s metrics project LSU should have just a 10-7 record. That’s how much negative 3-point defensive regression is coming for LSU.

So, despite their 13-4 against the spread mark this season, get ready for the bumpy ride of fading LSU.

Alabama Crimson Tide Odds

Alabama is having a tough season.

Nate Oats now has four head-scratching losses on the season (Iona, Memphis, Davidson, Missouri).

The last two losses are at least explainable. Alabama shot a combined 15-for-60 from 3-point range against Auburn and Mississippi State, good for a 25% clip. For an offense that leads the nation in rim-and-3 rate, the Crimson Tide are a high-variance team as a result.

But Alabama won’t stop shooting 3s just because it’s running a little cold. Therefore, we might be looking at some positive shooting regression coming for the Crimson Tide.

In fact, ShotQuality’s metrics projects Alabama is due for some slight positive shooting regression.

So, look for Alabama’s three J’s (Jahvon Quinerly, Jaden Shackelford, and JD Davidson) and Keon Ellis to launch bombs on Tuesday night. And they should have success doing so.

LSU vs Alabama Prediction and Pick

My Pick: Alabama -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

This is a dream regression matchup for Alabama. The Crimson Tide are going to launch 3s and the Tigers will let them. But more shots are going to go in than the Tigers are used to.

However, the question is: Can Alabama’s defense keep up with LSU’s?

Maybe. The Crimson Tide defense has been less-than-ideal, and they are specifically vulnerable to interior-motion offenses. That’s what coach Wade wants to do, and I’d expect Tari Eason, Darius Days, and Xavier Pinson to rip apart the Alabama defense.

But with Pinson still out due to injury and Alabama desperate for a victory, I’m partial towards Alabama having a big edge in this game.

I’m also willing to bet that edge, up to -3.5 points.