LSU vs. Mississippi State: Betting Odds, Picks, & Predictions (9/25/21)

Coach O and LSU have earned two straight wins after their debut loss to UCLA. The Tigers will look to build some momentum following a sub-optimal start to the season.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State is coming off a brutal loss to Memphis. A game they absolutely shouldn’t have lost.

So, with the Tigers opening as 2.5-point favorites, who has the edge in this Saturday matchup? Let’s dig in and find the most profitable betting angle.

LSU Vs. Mississippi State Betting Odds

LSU Tigers

The Tigers have a solid defensive front, one that’s top 20 in the nation in Havoc and top 10 in Defensive Success Rate. However, that front is also banged up, as the Tigers have seen injuries to DE’s Ali Gaye, Glen Logan, and Andre Anthony so far this season.

But their loss to UCLA was embarrassing, anyways. UCLA ran all over the Tigers, compiling 210 yards on the ground on their way to 470 total yards. The Bruins only threw the ball 16 times, but they ended up with a whopping 16.3 yards per pass play.

The Tigers’ defense bounced back against McNeese State and Central Michigan – two wins that aren’t necessarily very impressive.

Quarterback Max Johnson should feel confident heading into this game. The Sophomore completed 26 of his 35 passes last Saturday for a whopping 372 yards and five touchdowns. But while he averaged 10.6 YPA in that game, he also completed just 56% of his passes for 7.2 YPA vs. UCLA.

The Mississippi State defense is a lot closer to UCLA than they are to Central Michigan.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Speaking of the Mississippi State defense: It’s a unit that’s much improved. After finishing 10th in the SEC in yards allowed per game last season, this team returned over 80% of its production. As such, Mike Leach’s experienced defense has held opponents to just 57.8% completion percentage and 3.0 yards per rush.

In terms of advanced statistics, they aren’t as good as LSU’s. However, the team is coming off games against NC State and Memphis, who both are a step up on LSU’s competition.

Let’s talk about the Memphis game: How is this a touchdown?

https://twitter.com/BetSided/status/1439366767260979200?s=20

The Bulldogs took this fluke punch on the chin and scored 12 points in the final five minutes to almost beat Memphis.

The Bulldogs shouldn’t have even struggled to beat Memphis. State outgained Memphis 468 yards to 246, managed 26 first downs to Memphis’ 12, and won the turnover battle. But that ridiculous call and nine Mississippi State penalties propelled Memphis to an underdog victory.

Anyways, that loss might be good for Mississippi State coming into this week. Mike Leach and the air raid offense should be motivated and prepare to wreck a short-handed LSU defense. The hungry dog runs faster, they say…

Pick & Prediction

My Prediction: Mississippi State +2.5

I’m backing the Bulldogs as a home underdog in this spot.

Mississippi State’s defense is no joke, and LSU doesn’t have a run game. Through three weeks, LSU ranks among the bottom 10 teams in Rushing Success Rate while averaging a whopping 86 rush yards per game.

Meanwhile, look for LSU’s defense to try and get to the quarterback and cause Havoc. But the Tigers’ defense is dealing with a laundry list of injuries, and Mike Leach’s air raid scheme is perfectly designed to avoid what LSU is trying to do, anyways. Leach and Will Rogers will look to a lot of short, underneath routes, and won’t give the Tigers defensive line time to disrupt.

The Bulldogs opened as four-point underdogs, but it’s already been bet down to +2.5 at most books. Considering what the Bulldogs did to LSU in Death Valley last season, I like them to pull off the home upset today.

I’d consider taking them on the ML if it got down to +1, but I’m very happy to take the points in this spot.