LSU plays Purdue in the Citrus Bowl after both teams lost their respective conference championship games. LSU is coming off a blowout loss to Georgia in the SEC Title game, while Purdue is coming off a blowout loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Title game. This should be an interesting matchup to see who could rebound from a loss in their title game. Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks and predictions for this game!
LSU vs. Purdue Odds
LSU is a 14.5-point favorite against Purdue in Orlando and is at -580 on the money line. The over/under is also at 56. LSU being this big of a favorite is a bit of a surprise, but it says how much oddsmakers love LSU, regardless of some NFL draft opt outs. The over/under also makes sense because these teams can both score very well and play decent defense. This spread may come down a bit before kick-off because of how big it is.
LSU vs. Purdue Prediction & Pick
The pick: Purdue +14.5
Purdue was a solid team all year. They could score pretty well on offense, but were okay at best on defense. Aidan O’Connell was arguably the second or third best quarterback in the Big Ten this year. Charlie Jones also evolved into one of the best wide receivers in not just the Big Ten, but in the entire country. The Aidan O’Connell to Charlie Jones connection was one of the most unstoppable quarterback to wide receiver connections for any defense to contend with and is a huge reason why Purdue made it to the Big Ten Title game. Devin Mockobee was also a great addition at running back too for the Boilermakers. T
he offense averaged 28 points and 410 total yards a game for the year. The Purdue defense was okay this year at best, and just don’t have any notable names as compared to George Karlaftis the year before. They also just lost their head coach to Louisville, which is another factor going against the Boilermakers. LSU is still the better team overall. Jayden Daniels was great for LSU all year and he’s coming back for one more year too. He not only lead the Tigers in passing but ended up leading them in rushing too. Kayshon Boutte was the best receiver for LSU this year, but he last minute decided to leave for the NFL, so he won’t be playing in the bowl game. Malik Nabers is in line for a lot of targets in this game because of Boutte’s absence.
The offense averaged 32 points and 443 total yards a game for the year. The LSU defense wasn’t it’s normally dominant self this year, but they were still very good, specifically against the pass. They should continue to get better in the bowl game and leading into next year. This should be a much better game than the spread is indicating it will be. Purdue has the firepower on offense to keep this close, but expect LSU’s talent to win out in the end.
LSU vs. Purdue Key Matchups
Can Purdue contain Jayden Daniels? Can LSU slow down Aidan O’Connell?
Jayden Daniels vs the Purdue Secondary
Jayden Daniels had so much upside at ASU, and it took him going to LSU to fully unlock that potential. He had 2,774 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, three interceptions, and he has a 69% completion percentage on the year. He also had 818 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns on the year. Purdue allows 214 passing yards a game which could be a tougher matchup for Daniels than people realize. He needs to have a big game through the air to keep the Purdue defense honest with his feet too.
Devin Mockobee vs the LSU Front Seven
Devin Mockobee had a very good year this year as a freshman. He had 182 carries, 920 rushing yards, and nine rushing touchdowns on the year. Mockobee was a great balance running back for the Purdue passing offense. LSU allowed 153 rushing yards a game on the year, which is a good matchup for Mockobee to take advantage of. Mockobee needs to have a big game here because Aidan O’Connell and Charlie Jones are both opting out of the bowl game, so Mockobee will have more pressure to produce here.