March Madness Sweet 16 Upset Picks: Pac 12 In Trouble? Arizona & UCLA On Upset Watch

By Lineups | Mar 23, 2022, 11:46am

Contents

Sweet 16 upset picks for the March Madness NCAA Tournament. We are nearing the end as after this week we will have our Final Four figured out. In the meantime, hop on the best upset picks for the Sweet 16.

North Carolina vs UCLA: North Carolina Moneyline (+115)

The Bruins have made it to the Sweet 16 by staying true to their brand of basketball or, as I like to call it, “the Mick Cronin way”. From his days at Cincinnati, Mick Cronin has always championed the same philosophy — slow the game down on offense and make teams take contested shots on defense. While it’s worked so far against Akron and St. Mary’s, it’s dangerous to expect the same results in their matchup against North Carolina on Friday. The primary reason being that the Tar Heels are an entirely different team from both the Zips and the Gaels. Where Akron and St. Mary’s played a similar style to UCLA, the Tar Heels like to speed it up and score. Not only that, they can create mismatch problems with their tall, strong guards who can handle the ball on the perimeter. Their defense hasn’t been phenomenal by any stretch, but it’s put the clamps down on teams for stretches long enough that allow their offense to take over. Unlike their last two games, the Bruins are going to have to score to stay in this one, and I don’t see them being able to do it. So long as North Carolina can stay out of foul trouble, I like them taking home the dub and moving on to the Elite 8.

Author: Patrick Monnin

#11 Iowa St Vs. #10 Miami: Iowa St ML (+115)

Iowa St has already beaten LSU and Wisconsin in this tournament, so 10th seed Miami shouldn’t scare them in the slightest. The Cyclones field an elite defense that applies tremendous pressure on perimeter shooters. Miami is the opposite: an elite offensive team that has lapses on the defensive end. Miami has arguably one of the worst interior defenses in the entire nation, and Iowa St can exploit this. I am going with defense over offense here and choosing the Cyclones. The game is going to be a sloppy, turnover-ridden one, which benefits Iowa St much more than it does Miami.

Author: Braxton Reynolds

#5 Houston vs #1 Arizona: Houston ML (+105 at BetMGM)

Houston looks so good right now. The Cougars beat UAB and Illinois by a combined 29, suffocating each defensively and shooting the lights out offensively.

Arizona had a scare against TCU. If Bennedict Mathurin doesn’t hit that late-game 3, the Wildcats are scheduling tee times right now.

https://twitter.com/mrmatthewcfb/status/1505760260610473989?s=21

Now, Arizona could already be vulnerable after an overtime victory. But besides that, Houston might match up well with Tommy Lloyd’s squad.

Because Houston plays a lot like TCU.

On defense, both are defensive-minded teams that protect the rim and cover ball-screens well. On offense, both crash the offensive glass, with TCU ranking first in offensive rebounding rate and Houston ranking third.

Houston has the length, athleticism, and shooting ability to keep up with the Wildcats. Houston also looks strong while Arizona looks vulnerable.

And believe it or not, KenPom makes this spread Houston -1. So I’ll happily take a shot with Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars at +105.

Author: Tanner McGrath