The Seattle Mariners are heading south to Anaheim to take on the Angels in their second AL West battle against each other. The Angels won the first series back in April and currently hold the third place spot in the division at 34-30. The Mariners will look to close the gap here as they sit in fourth at 30-31.
Let’s take a look at the odds for this Friday night showdown and dive into some analysis.
Mariners vs. Angels Prediction
Mariners vs. Angels Prediction: Under 7.5 runs
The Mariners enter this game off of their worst slump so far this year. They’ve lost four of their last five games and six of their last eight and three of those losses were by eight runs or more. Through their five games in June, the Mariners lineup has a .210/.289/.296 team slash line while the pitching staff has a 8.78 ERA and a .344/.399./561 slash line against them. Things aren’t clicking the way they should be and they’re failing to stay competitive against top-tier teams.
Luckily they have Castillo back on the mound today, who is in the top 10 in ERA (2.55) and WHIP (0.98). He has however, struggled more on the road this year, where he is 0-2 and has a 3.91 ERA and his job doesn’t get any easier against a solid Angels team.
The Angels are playing good baseball right now. Stars Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout have a combined 30 home runs this year while third baseman Gio Urshela is batting .305. The team batting average is the 10th best in baseball and team OPS is the sixth-best. Ohtani is on the mound which makes for a great pitching matchup here though he’s coming off a rough outing against Houston which saw him concede nine hits and five earned runs. He has home field advantage here, where he performs significantly better (2.31 ERA) compared to on the road (4.50 ERA).
Ohtani and Castillo both pitched in the first series and both picked up wins through two stellar performances. That being said, Ohtani may have the edge over this Mariners lineup who is hard to depend on right now. Ohtani has the third-most K’s in the league (96) while the Mariners offense have the third-most strikeouts. Teoscar Hernandez leads the league in strikeouts (83), and Jarred Kelelnic, Eugenio Suarez, and Julio Rodriguez aren’t far behind him.
The one thing in this game you should be able to depend on is solid pitching and that should keep the score relatively low. Take the under on total runs.
Mariners vs. Angels Odds
The Mariners (+102) enter as road underdogs in this matchup against the Angels (-115). If you are confident that the Angels can continue their hot streak and beat the Mariners by more than a run, you can bet their run line at +175. You can also get the Mariners +1.5 at -205. Note that the Mariners are 11-6 at covering the run line spread as the road underdog, but there is considerably less value. The Angels are 9-17 at covering the run line spread as the home favorite.
Some key trends to consider:
- Mariners are 7-2 on hitting the under with one day of rest
- Mariners are 10-8-1 on hitting the under in AL West games
- Angels are 15-10-1 on hitting the under as home favorite
- Angels are 4-1 on hitting the under with a rest disadvantage
Mariners vs. Angels Key Matchups
Let’s take a look at the key matchups that could decide Mariners vs. Angels
Shohei Ohtani vs. Luis Castillo
This game features an elite pitching matchup between Castillo and Ohtani, the ace of their respective team. Over their last three starts, Castillo has a 0.47 ERA, 10 hits, 24 strikeouts, and five walks. Ohtani has a 3.50 ERA, 17 hits, 25 strikeouts, and seven walks.
The Mariners team slash line against Ohtani is .179/.226/.269. The Angels career team slash line against Castillo is considerably better: .250/.377/.659, however Castillo out-performed Ohtani last series. When Castillo pitched in game two of the last series, he allowed just two hits and zero runs, with six strikeouts. Ohtani took game three, allowing just three hits and one earned run, while striking out eight.
Both have significant skin in the game here: Castillo is trying to notch his first road win while Ohtani is trying to right himself after his worst outing of the season.
Mike Trout vs. Mariners pitching staff
Trout is all too familiar with this Mariners pitching staff and has put up considerably good stats against them. His slash line against Mariners pitching is .371/.500/.829 which includes a 1.500 OPS against Castillo. However, Castillo won the last matchup as Trout went 0-3 against him, so there is definitely a battle here.
Trout was pardoned from having to face reliever Andres Muñoz last series as he was on the IL. But now he’s back, and his 102 mph fastball and 90+ mph slider is very much back too. This won’t be the first time he’s faced him: Trout’s been walked twice and also struck out twice by Muñoz in his career. And, Muñoz has good company in the Mariner’s bullpen which has a 3.78 ERA along with just 18 home runs and 82 walks.
This is the perfect pitching matchup for Trout who’s not necessarily playing MVP-level baseball, but close to it. The Mariners are working through some kinks but still remain a top pitching staff in the league.
Mariners vs. Rangers Starting Lineups
Mariners Starting Lineup
SS J.P. Crawford L
CF Julio Rodriguez R
1B Ty France R
LF Jarred Kelenic L
RF Teoscar Hernandez R
3B Eugenio Suarez R
C Cal Raleigh S
DH Mike Ford L
2B Jose Caballero R
Angels Starting Lineup
LF Tyler Ward R
P Shohei Ohtani L
CF Mike Trout R
3B Anthony Rendon R
2B Luis Rengifo B
1B Jared Walsh L
RF Mickey Moniak L
C Chad Wallach R
SS Zach Neto R