The Mariners and Astros are set to play their second game of their four-game series tonight after Seattle came out with hot bats last night and took game one. Now, as these two AL West teams finish up their last couple games before the All-Star break, they’re each looking to bolster their record and close the gap between them and Texas, who leads their division. Let’s take a look at odds for game two of this series as well as make some predictions.
Mariners vs. Astros Prediction
Mariners vs. Astros Prediction: Astros ML
Last night, Eugenio Suarez was the star of the show with an RBI double and two home runs to put three on the board for Seattle. J.P. Crawford added a third home run on the night to help seal the 5-1 win. The Mariners now have a different leader in each of the top five batting categories: Ty France leads in batting average (.365), Teoscar Hernandez leads in home runs (15), Julio Rodriguez leads in hits (88), Suarez leads in RBIs (52), and Crawford leads in OBP (.365). This gives them considerable momentum heading into game two with Luis Castillo on the mound.
Seattle has won five of their last six games heading into tonight, with a (.282/.348/.483) slash line in July. They’re facing RHP Hunter Brown who is 2-3 with a 4.12 ERA at Minute Maid Park. Brown gave up 10 hits and six runs on seven hits in his last start but he’s backed by a bullpen with a 3.56 ERA (fourth-best).
The Astros were having a very rough June leading into their last few games, where they picked up drastically and improved their June record to 13-14. They had won four straight and eight of their last 10 heading into last night’s loss versus Seattle. This team has been plagued by injury in the last couple of weeks which includes injury to Jose Altuve, who now joins other star Yordan Alvarez on the IL.
This Houston lineup will face Mariners ace Castillo who has kept the current Houston lineup to a (.196/.213/.326) slash line in his career. Kyle Tucker and Jeremy Pena are two that have done considerably well against Castillo, with Tucker boasting a (.500/.500/1.167) slash line and a home run against him, and Pena not far behind at (.500/.500/.667). Tucker has a .320 batting average in the last 30 days and a .417 batting average in the first few games of July, so he and Castillo should match up well against each other.
In the head-to-head rivalry, the Astros have a big advantage, as they have a 37-15 record in their past 52 games played in Houston and have outperformed at the plate all year long despite key injuries. Take the Astros to come out hotter and win game two.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds
The Mariners enter as narrow road underdogs in this matchup against the Astros with Castillo facing off against Brown on the mound. The over/under is 7.5 runs and if you are interested in betting the run line, you can get the Mariners -1.5 at +165 or the Astros +1.5 at -195.
Seattle is 3-1 against Houston this year and 13-10 in divisional games overall. Houston has the fourth-best record in the American League (49-39) and is 16-8 against other AL West teams.
Mariners vs. Astros Key Matchup
Let’s take a look at a key matchup that could help decide this AL West game.
Luis Castillo vs. Minute Maid Park
Luis Castillo may be an All-Star but he still struggles significantly on the road. He is 0-4 when he’s not playing at T-Mobile Park and his ERA shoots up from 2.44 to 4.24 when he’s on the road. His WHIP is up to 1.34 on the road versus 0.93 at home and in his last three road starts, he’s forfeited 15 hits, seven earned runs, six walks, and four home runs. Also, the Mariners are 0-4 in Castillo’s last four starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Meanwhile this Astros team is batting (.246/.323/.398) when batting at home, where they’re 24-20. Kyle Tucker, who’s leading this team with a .293 batting average and does historically well versus Castillo, has a (.273/.354/.442) slash line at home which gives Castillo some stiff competition early on in this lineup.
Mariners vs Astros Starting Lineups
Mariners Starting Lineup
SS J. Crawford L
CF J. Rodriguez R
1B Ty France R
RF T. Hernandez R
C Cal Raleigh S
3B E. Suarez R
LF J. Kelenic L
DH Mike Ford L
2B K. Wong R
Astros Starting Lineup
2B M. Dubon R
3B Alex Bregman R
RF Kyle Tucker L
1B Jose Abreu R
SS Jeremy Pena R
DH Yainer Diaz R
LF Corey Julks R
CF C. McCormick R
C M. Maldonado R