Mariners vs. Diamondbacks: Predictions, Odds, Best Bet, Starting Lineups (7/28/23)

The Mariners and the Diamondbacks are starting their three-game series at Chase Field tonight with Logan Gilbert and Tommy Henry on the mound(s). Seattle enters having won six of their last ten games and two consecutive series over the Blue Jays and the Twins.

Arizona has lost six of their last seven games, with the majority of those losses coming on the road. They’re back at home tonight and desperately need a series win to close the gap between them and the Dodgers in the NL West. Read ahead for more information on this matchup, predictions, betting odds, matchups, lineups, and more.

Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Best Bet: Under 9.5 runs

The Mariners have been pretty solid in the month of July albeit with some kinks. J.P. Crawford has a .333/.415/.519 slash line, Julio Rodriguez has five home runs in his last five games and Eugenio Suarez has a .912 OPS. However, Ty France has the second-lowest batting average (.138) in the league in the month of July and strikeouts still remain an issue (228 in July, most in MLB).

This Mariners pitching staff has been electric in July, boasting a 3.58 ERA – the third-lowest of any team this month – and a 4.17 K/BB ratio, also the third-best. They’ve shown a lot of discipline following a disappointing June as their win percentage is up to .619 in July and their OBA is .220. Logan Gilbert has been especially impressive, entering this game 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA and a complete game shutout in July.

Gilbert faces a talented Arizona lineup this week that has the seventh-best team batting average in the league (.257). Of the seven players that have played 70 or more games, all but one are batting .250 or higher, and four are batting .270 or higher. This lineup is batting .259 against right-handed pitchers (fourth-best in MLB), however, they’re in a slump of sorts, batting .239/.317/.410 this month compared to .266/.341/.444 in June. They’ve lost seven of their last 10 and 14 of their 19 games in July.

Diamondback LHP Tommy Henry will take the mound for Arizona today as he looks to get his first win of the month. He’s 0-2 with a 3.68 ERA in July and has not faced a single player in this lineup before. This Arizona pitching staff has struggled since the end of the All-Star break, and the stats show as much: 7.22 ERA (worst in MLB), .296 batting average against (second-worst in MLB), and a 1.80 K/BB ratio (second-worst in MLB).

Seattle is the better team right now, but I don’t expect Arizona to stay in this slump forever. Despite their shortcomings, they still have a very dynamic offense which is threatening, even with Gilbert on the mound. I predict that after a day off, they’ll come in more focused and keep this a close game.

Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Odds

The Mariners (-145) enter as road favorites in this matchup against the Diamondbacks (+125). The over/under is 9.5 runs and if you are interested in betting the run line, you can get the Mariners -1.5 at +110 or the Diamondbacks +1.5 at -130.

Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Key Matchup

Let’s take a look at a key matchup that could decide the Mariners vs. Diamondbacks.

Logan Gilbert vs. Leadoff hitter

Against players batting is the #1 spot, Logan Gilbert is forfeiting a .364/.417/.527 slash line, the eighth-worst among all right-handed pitchers. He will likely face either Geraldo Perdomo or Ketel Marte in this spot – likely the latter – but should hope for Perdomo, though neither will be easy.

When leading off, Marte is batting .306/.370/.488, .281/.360/.521 against right-handed pitchers, and .407/.500/.852 in the last week alone. Despite the cold streak of the Diamondbacks right now, he’s stayed consistently hot.

If Perdomo assumes the leadoff role, he’s also a threat: his slash line when batting #1 is .290/.389/.364. He is batting .355 with a 1.003 OPS in the two weeks leading into this game.

Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Starting Lineups

Mariners Starting Lineup
SS J.P. Crawford L
CF Julio Rodriguez R
3B Eugenio Suarez R
RF Teoscar Hernandez R
C Cal Raleigh S
1B Ty France R
DH Mike Ford L
LF Cade Marlowe L
2B Dylan Moore R

Diamondbacks Starting Lineup
2B Ketel Marte S
SS Geraldo Perdomo S
LF Corbin Carroll L
1B Christian Walker R
DH Dominic Canzone L
3B Emmanuel Rivera R
RF Jake McCarthy L
CF Alek Thomas L
C Jose Herrera S