Mariners vs. Tigers: Predictions, Odds, Best Bets, Starting Lineups (5/12/23)

Detroit is hosting Seattle this week, looking to continue their series-winning streak that’s seen them take series wins over the Mets, Cardinals, and Guardians. Meanwhile Seattle is looking to right the ship after dropping their home series to the Rangers for the first time since 2019. Today’s game in Detroit is the start of a nine-game road trip for the Mariners.

Let’s take a look at what’s on tap for this matchup, including predictions, odds, & analysis for Friday’s game.

Tigers vs. Mariners

Prediction: Mariners -1.5 (+125)
Marco Gonzalez and Matthew Boyd are the starting pitchers for game one in this series. Their stats are comparable – over the last three games, Gonzalez has a 5.79 ERA and 18 hits allowed; Boyd has a 5.94 ERA and 18 hits allowed. The outlier here is that Boyd has more than doubled the number of strikeouts Gonzalez has in that same period.

Gonzalez is a wild card in terms of performance, but he’s backed by arguably the best bullpen in baseball which currently has 12 saves on the season. But, Gonzalez has been pretty dominant against this lineup historically, so there’s definitely some confidence there.

Boyd has struggled at home in particular, where he has a 6.46 ERA and two losses this year. While he’s facing a Seattle lineup that currently has the worst team batting average in baseball, what makes this Seattle lineup dangerously good and often overolooked, is that they have a different batting leader in the five most important batting categories. Jarred Kelenic leads in batting average, Teoscar Hernandez leads in total homeruns, Eugenio Suarez leads in total RBIs, J.P. Crawford has the best OPS, and Ty France leads in total hits. Note that phenom Juli0 Rodriguez is not in that list, but we know what he is capable of as well – this team is not a one-star show.

I expect the Mariners to come out on top in game one as the more complete team here. Notably, they are 5-0 in their games after a day’s rest.

Mariners vs. Tigers Odds

The Mariners enter as road favorites in this game at -125 on the moneyline. The over/under is 9 runs and you can get the Mariners -1.5 at +125 or the Tigers +1.5 at -145.

If you’re looking to bet the run line, note that Seattle covers the spread 66% of the time as the away team and Detroit has covered 60% of the time as the home team. These teams also have near-dentical records and Seattle is 8-7 on the road while Detroit is 8-7 at home.

Mariners vs. Tigers Key Matchups

Here are the key matchups that could decide Mariners vs. Tigers

Mariners Defense vs. Tigers Lineup

Seattle’s defense has a .991 fielding percentage and just 12 errors through the first 37 games. Detroit’s lineup is tied for the worst OBP in the league (.297) and averages the third-fewest runs per game. That being said, where Seattle waivers, Detroit also has strengths. The team as a whole does significantly better against left-handed pitchers like Gonzalez, namely because it’s a predominantly right-handed lineup. Detroit’s OPS against lefties is .730. The Mariners bullpen is made up of mostly right-handed pitchers which in this case could help them if Gonzalez can’t put them away.

Matthew Boyd vs. Comerica Park

For reasons that maybe don’t make sense, Boyd does pitches significantly worse at his home ballpark. He has a 6.46 ERA over three games started and 15.1 innings pitched. Over that same period he’s given up 18 hits, two home runs, and seven walks. His last home start came against the Orioles in April where he had just three strikeouts, and gave up a walk, a homerun, eight hits, and six earned runs. Will he be able to bounce back from that performance tonight?

Mariners vs. Tigers Starting Lineups

Mariners Starting Lineup
SS J.P Crawford L
1B Ty France R
CF Jarred Kelenic L
3B Eugenio Suarez R
C Cal Raleigh S
CF Julio Rodriguez R
RF Teoscar Hernandez R
PH A.J. Pollock
2B Kolten Wong L

Tigers Starting Lineup
2B Zach McKinstry L
SS Javier Baez R
CF Riley Greene L
1B Spencer Torkelson R
3B Andy Ibanez R
LF Akil Baddoo L
DH Miguel Cabrera R
RF Matt Vierling R
C Jake Rogers R