The Bronx Bombers were in a full-on tailspin, after a sweep at the hands of the rival Boston Red Sox. Then, they took game 1 from a .500 Mariners team in decent form, coming off of a pair of series wins. Let’s take a look at the odds for this coast-to-coast clash, where my prediction is for a Mariners win and for u7.5 runs to hit.
Mariners Vs. Yankees Prediction
With TBD listed as the Yanks’ starter for Wednesday, it’s looking like it will be Jhony Brito, a rookie right-hander who came on strong through his first couple starts but has since floundered. He’ll be getting the ball against the Mariners’ Luis Castillo, one of the very best in the business in the midst of another very solid season.
The Yankees have been a very odd team this year, seemingly taking on a different character just about every week. Right now, that character is a team that pitches well but can’t hit anything, with a team batting average hovering right around the .200 mark over the past few weeks. This stretch, not coincidentally, has been devoid of Aaron Judge, who is on the IL with a toe injury.
Similarly, the Mariners are a top-10 team in ERA, but a bottom-10 group in OPS and run scoring. This has all of the makings of a low-scoring matchup, even with Brito going through a rough patch- the Yankees do not look like a squad that’s going to put up runs on Castillo, so the M’s own mediocre offense would probably have to push the over on their own. If it wasn’t clear enough from the direction of that discourse, I feel excellent about the Mariners moneyline, as well as the under.
Mariners Vs. Yankees Prediction: Mariners ML (-180), uX.X runs (-110)
Mariners Vs. Yankees Odds
The Yankees are home underdogs against Castillo with a moneyline of +155 compared to -180 for Seattle. With the run scoring line set at 7.5, the over and under are both -110.
Mariners Vs. Yankees Key Matchups
Luis Castillo Vs. A Very Weak Lineup
With Judge out, I have genuinely no idea who the Yankees expect to hit the ball against Castillo. He has struggled to a degree against lefties this year, but the Yankees are a very right-handed team.
Anthony Rizzo is the team’s most prominent lefty by a mile, but he’s in an awful slump across all of June, and he has a reverse split anyways as he hits lefty arms better. Speaking of reverse splits, Gleyber Torres is having a great week or so, and has hit slightly better against righties.
Jake Bauers leads the team in OPS across June thus far, and as a lefty, crushes right-handed pitching. Billy McKinney, another lefty, has also been solid in relief of Judge- he ripped a home run in Tuesday’s matchup. Besides the lefties, Josh Donaldson is having a nice month after coming off of the IL, and has been a relative bright spot for a pretty desolate lineup.
Beyond those few relative overperformers, it’s been a pretty bleak stretch for the Yanks lineup, and they’re not equipped to take down a Cy Young candidate. This mismatch is easily the biggest reason I’m taking the Mariners moneyline and under 7.5 runs in my Mariners vs. Yankees preview.
Jhony Brito Vs. Power Bats
Brito has struggled in a lot of ways this year- most, one could say. One of those areas has been keeping the ball in the park, as he’s allowed over 1.5 home runs per 9 innings pitched. The Mariners lineup isn’t stacked from top to bottom, but they do have a few hitters who can hit the long ball.
After two terrible part- seasons to start his big-league career, Jarred Kelenic leads qualified Mariners hitters in OPS this season. Joined by Julio Rodriguez and Teoscar Hernandez- a familiar foe for the Bronx Bombers- Kelenic is one of three Mariners hitters with double-digit home runs on the year. Ty France is tops in batting average, and J.P. Crawford is the team WAR leader.
Sandwiched between Crawford at the top and Kelenic in the middle of the lineup, Rodriguez-France-Hernandez is a tough stretch of righty bats. These three are poised well to take advantage of Brito’s brutal reverse-split, as he has allowed an OPS of .888 against right handers. Luckily for Brito, the latter two both strongly prefer to hit lefties, while Rodriguez is more or less even against both sides.
Mariners Vs. Yankees Starting Lineups
Mariners Starting Lineup
SS J. Crawford L
CF J. Rodriguez R
1B T. France R
RF T. Hernandez R
LF J. Kelenic L
3B E. Suarez R
C C. Raleigh S
DH M. Ford L
2B J. Caballero R
Yankees Starting Lineup
RF J. Bauers L
2B G. Torres R
DH G. Stanton R
1B A. Rizzo L
3B J. Donaldson R
CF H. Bader R
LF B. McKinney L
C K. Higashioka R
SS A. Volpe R