Predictions for Red Sox vs. Marlins: Score Projection, Over/Under Pick & Odds – July 4

By Lineups Staff | Aug 23, 2024, 4:41am

Thursday’s game at LoanDepot park has the Boston Red Sox (46-39) squaring off against the Miami Marlins (30-56) at 1:10 PM ET (on July 4). Our computer prediction projects a narrow 4-3 win for the Red Sox, so it should be a competitive matchup.

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Contents

Red Sox vs. Marlins Matchup Info

When: Thursday, July 4, 2024 at 1:10 PM ET
Where: LoanDepot park in Miami, Florida
How to Watch on TV: BSFL
Live Stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
Tickets: Get tickets for this game at Ticketmaster

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Red Sox vs. Marlins Predictions

Score Prediction: Red Sox 4, Marlins 3
Total Prediction: Under 8.5 runs

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Red Sox vs. Marlins Betting Lines

Red Sox vs Marlins Betting Information
Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Red Sox	-155	+130	8.5	-103	-126

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Red Sox Betting Insights

Boston has been chosen as the favorite in 46 games this year, and has walked away with the win 26 times (56.5%) in those games.
This season, the Red Sox have come away with a win 10 times in 15 chances when named as a favorite of at least -155 or better on the moneyline.
Boston and its opponents have gone over in 42 of 85 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
The Red Sox had a 6-4 record across the 10 games they were favored on the moneyline in their past 15 matchups.
Over its past 15 outings, Boston and its opponents combined to go over the total 11 times (all 15 games had set totals).

Marlins Betting Insights

Miami has won 27 of the 71 games it was the underdog on the moneyline this season (38%).
In games they have played as a moneyline underdog with odds of +130 or longer, the Marlins have an 11-23 record (winning only 32.4% of their games).
In the 86 games oddsmakers have set an over/under for Miami, it has combined with opponents to go over the total 44 times (44-40-2).
The Marlins have played as underdogs in 15 of their past 15 games and went 7-8 in those contests.
In its past 15 games with a total, Miami and its opponents have failed to hit the over seven times.

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Red Sox vs. Marlins Probable Pitchers

Red Sox’s Starting Pitcher: Nick Pivetta

The 31-year-old has pitched in 12 games this season with an ERA of 4.52, a 4.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.216.
Nick Pivetta’s team has been victorious in 62.5% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 5-3.
Pivetta’s team has a 7-5 record in his starts this season.
Games Pivetta has started this season hit the over four times in 12 chances.

Marlins’ Starting Pitcher: Kyle Tyler

In three games this season, he has compiled a 3.37 ERA and averages 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings while opposing batters are hitting .216 against him.
The Marlins were named the moneyline underdog for two Kyle Tyler starts this season — they split the games.
His team split the two games he’s made an appearance in this season.
Tyler’s two starts with a total this season finished 1-1-0 against the total.

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Red Sox’s 2024 Performance

Split	Record
Overall	46-39
Home	20-23
Road	26-16
One-Run Games	10-5
Scoring 5+ Runs	36-4

Marlins’ 2024 Performance

Split	Record
Overall	30-56
Home	16-29
Road	14-27
One-Run Games	14-10
Scoring 5+ Runs	16-10

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