Marlins vs. Giants: Predictions, Odds, Best Bets, Starting Lineups (5/19/23)
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After a tough 2022, the Marlins are well on their way to a rebound, as they’re sitting in a Wild Card spot early on after a sweep of the Nationals. Meanwhile, the Giants are also coming off of a nice sweep, against the Phillies, but they haven’t had as encouraging of a start overall. Let’s take a look at the odds for this matchup, where my prediction is that the Giants will keep it rolling with a cover.
Marlins vs. Giants Prediction
We’ve got an intriguing pitching matchup on our hands in the Bay this Friday. On one side, there’s Sandy Alcantara, who made the leap from solid arm to superstar last year as he was the unanimous NL Cy Young winner, even in a year with a pretty strong field.
On the other end of things, there’s Anthony DeSclafani, a veteran who is having a major bounce-back season. After a 2022 that was cut short by injury- but was not going remotely well before that- the Giants righty is tossing an ERA just over 3.00, a WHIP under 1.000, and has under a walk per 9, a league-best total.
Beyond the starters, who both have the ability to put in a great performance, these teams both rank right around the bottom third of the league in ERA, much of which is driven by mediocre bullpens. That being said, neither is a special group in terms of run-scoring either, with San Francisco tied at 17th in the league and Miami a dismal 28th.
In each of their previous series, both of these teams went over 7.5 runs twice, against teams with similar profiles, and the remaining game in each series had exactly 7 total runs- I’m liking the over. For the moneyline, I’m going to trust DeSclafani’s strong start, and exercise caution with Alcantara’s rough one- he should rebound eventually, but is currently trending in the wrong direction with his most recent start being perhaps his worst outing yet.
Marlins Vs. Giants Prediction: Giants ML (-120), o7.5 (-105)
Marlins vs. Giants Odds
This one is nearly a pick ‘em; the Giants are -120 at home while the Marlins are even money. For a run total of 7.5, the over is -105 and the under is -115
Marlins Vs. Giants Key Matchups
Will Sandy Alcantara be able to keep the Giants Lefties in check? How will Anthony Declafani hold up against this Savvy Marlins lineup? Check out the key matchups for Marlins vs Giants below.
Sandy Alcantara Vs. Giants Lefties
Amidst his early struggles, the right-handed Alcantara has had a particularly tough time with lefties to start the year. Unfortunately for him, about half of the Giants lineup is left-handed, including some of the top bats.
One of those players is right at the top of the lineup, leadoff man LaMonte Wade Jr. He’s enjoying a great start to the season, headlined by a highly impressive OBP of .434 and supported by more power than he showed last season.
Next up are two hitters who are in the middle of bounce-back seasons, albeit for different reasons. Mike Yastrzemski has returned to form thus far after a pretty tough 2022 at the plate, a really positive development for San Francisco. Michael Conforto is also settling in nicely after a 2022 that was entirely lost to injury.
Brandon Crawford has struggled out of the gate but is a very experienced lefty bat, and catcher Blake Sabol has swung the bat well to start the year. San Francisco’s strong group of left handed hitters is a key reason I have them hitting the -120 moneyline in my Marlins vs. Giants prediction.
Anthony DeSclafani Vs. Heart of the Marlins Lineup
With Jesús Sánchez sitting on the 10-day injured list, the Marlins are left with basically two hitters who have put together a nice start to their 2023 campaigns. One should come as a surprise to nobody; Luis Arraez. It’s worth noting that DeSclafani does have a bit of a platoon split, so the lefty Arraez could have some good opportunities against him.
Regardless of handedness, Arraez is an incredibly tough out. After narrowly beating Aaron Judge to last year’s AL batting title, he’s making his presence felt in year one in the senior circuit. He’s bumped his average all the way up to a staggering .378, and is just behind Wade with a ridiculous .433 OBP. Last year, he led the league in a relatively antiquated stat, but was close to league average at the plate holistically; now he’s a definitive plus-bat.
His lineup protection is cleanup hitter Jorge Soler, who isn’t approaching the levels he flashed during his breakout 2019 in Kansas City, but the argument can easily be made that he’s playing his best ball since that season.
He’s second amongst currently-healthy Marlins with an OPS of .820, and comfortably leads the team with 11 long balls. Soler is dangerous in a vacuum, but his plate appearances are likely to be especially high leverage considering how likely Arraez is to get on base and set up a scoring opportunity.
Beyond those two, however, the Marlins do not have a ton going for them offensively. Jean Segura (.577 OPS) is a pretty dismal leadoff option, and the solid but unspectacular Garrett Cooper and Bryan De La Cruz and Garrett Cooper are the only other consistently starter-level bats in the lineup. Two stud bats are often enough to win a game, and Miami has been winning some games of late, but the lack of depth in the lineup makes it tough for me to invest in them.
Marlins Vs. Giants Starting Lineups
Marlins Starting Lineup
3B J. Segura R
1B G. Cooper R
2B L. Arraez L
DH J. Soler R
LF B. De La Cruz R
SS J. Wendle L
RF P. Burdick R
C N. Fortes R
CF X. Edwards S
Giants Starting Lineup
1B L. Wade L
2B T. Estrada R
RF M. Conforto L
DH W. Flores R
CF M. Yastrzemski L
3B C. Schmitt R
LF B. Sabol L
SS B. Crawford L
C J. Bart R
