Marquette vs Creighton: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/10/22)

Marquette vs Creighton Betting Odds

The Big East tournament is underway at Madison Square Garden. St. John’s handled DePaul, while Butler pulled off an unlikely overtime upset over Xavier.

It truly is the best conference tournament.

This is my favorite matchup of that tournament. Marquette is in a Shaka Smart revelation, finding a new identity underneath his up-tempo, opportunistic offense. Meanwhile, Creighton exceeded everyone’s expectations this season despite having such a young roster, as Greg McDermott continues to prove he’s the right fit in Omaha.

However, Creighton dealt with a season-ending injury to its starting point guard – Ryan Nembhard – and it has yet to recover.

So, can McDermott rally the troops in such an important spot?

Marquette Golden Eagles Odds

The Marquette offense had a post-Markus Howard revelation coming with the play of Justin Lewis and Darryl Morsell.

Those two combined for 30 points per game and led the most efficient 2-point shooting offense in the Big East, with the Eagles hitting 53.1% of their interior opportunities.

Behind this offensive style, the Golden Eagles won seven in a row in January, beating Providence and Villanova along the way. After years of failing at Texas, Smart had built something at Marquette.

But it was clear the Golden Eagles were due for some regression, and they stumbled down the stretch. Marquette lost four of its final 10 contests, including losses to KenPom sub-100 teams Butler and DePaul.

The defense held its own, particularly on the perimeter. The Golden Eagles led the league in steal rate and 3-point defense. I would generally expect some regression in the latter from the Golden Eagles, but Marquette’s defense is elite at running guys off the 3-point line.

I think Creighton will be a tough matchup this Thursday, however.

Creighton Bluejays Odds

While Marquette led the league in 2-point offense, Creighton led the league in 2-point defense.

To go even further, Marquette led the Big East in effective field goal percentage while Creighton led the league in effective field goal percentage allowed.

This is truly a battle between an unstoppable force and an immovable object.

The interior tandem of Ryan Hawkins and Ryan Kalkbrenner have both anchored the interior defense and led an efficient 2-point offense. Both have an ORtg above 110 (Kalkbrenner has a 126) and rank above average in half-court points per possession allowed.

But it’s hard to project how this offense performs without Nembhard in the lineup.

On one hand, Nembhard finished the season with a 91 ORtg and the Bluejays beat UConn without him in the lineup. On the other hand, he finished with a nationally ranked assist rate and the Bluejays lost to Providence and Seton Hall without him.

Marquette vs Creighton Prediction and Pick

KenPom has this spread at +2, and I do think there’s some value with Creighton in this spot.

Marquette has been fading, and I think its interior offense is overrated in the markets. Meanwhile, I fully believe in Creighton’s interior defense.

Offensively, it’s going to be gross. Especially without Nembhard in the lineup. But look for Creighton to try and control the pace to this game, and a slower pace would really mess with Shaka’s offense.

I’ll take Creighton to keep it within one possession.