Marquette vs. Georgetown: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (1/7/22)

Marquette vs. Georgetown Betting Odds

Shaka Smart’s Golden Eagles will travel to our nation’s capital Friday to take on Patrick Ewing’s Hoyas.

Following an unbelievable season which ended in a shocking Big East title, Georgetown is slumping. The Hoyas are 6-5 with losses to Dartmouth and Saint Joseph’s.

Meanwhile, Marquette has been up-and-down. The Eagles started their year with wins over Illinois and West Virginia, but recently dropped four straight games. The win over Providence means Marquette is 1-3 in Big East play so far.

The Hoyas are short home dogs in this matchup, which is always enticing to bet. But do the Hoyas have the firepower to upset the Golden Eagles?

Marquette Golden Eagles Odds

It’s likely that Marquette is just in a slump.

In their four-loss streak – to UCLA, Xavier, UConn, and Creighton – the Golden Eagles shot a combined 27-for-93 from deep (29%). While Marquette is not a great 3-point shooting team, that’s a good 3% below their season-long mark.

Their opponents also shot much better from 3 than what Marquette has been allowing.

Marquette is a defense-first team, wherein the team ranks above the 75th percentile in half-court points per possession allowed (.798). Like the perimeter offense, the perimeter defense isn’t excellent, but I believe they’re due for some regression in that area as well.

The Golden Eagles play stupid fast, running at the 24th fastest tempo and with the fifth shortest average length of possession.

Justin Lewis and Darryl Morsell run the show in Milwaukee, combining for 29 points per game.

Georgetown Hoyas Betting Odds

It’s been an ugly, let-down season for the defending conference champs.

An opening night loss to Dartmouth was followed up with neutral-court losses to San Diego State and Saint Joseph’s, which was followed up with a road loss to South Carolina.

One would think that the loss of Qudus Wahab is why Georgetown has dropped off. But that’s not entirely true, as the interior offense and defense has mostly plateaued while the rebounding numbers have jumped. 7-foot-0 Malcolm Wilson and 7-foot-2 Ryan Mutombo lead a frontcourt that’s top-50 in block rate.

Instead, the perimeter defense has been unbearable. The team is 270th in 3-point defense, 240th in defensive turnover rate, and 228th in spot-up points per possession allowed. The back-court duo of Dante Harris and Donald Carey has been useless against opposing backcourts.

Offensively, the 3-point shot has kept the Hoyas afloat, as they’re draining over 39% of their 3-point attempts (13th nationally). That number might be due for regression, however, and the interior offense probably should step it up a notch (47.2 2P%, 259th nationally).

However, the leading scorers for Georgetown are the wings. 6-foot-5 Aminu Mohammed and 6-foot-7 Kaiden Rice are combining for over 19 points per game.

Mohammed deserves some extra praise. He’s one of the top true freshmen in the nation, and he is leading his team in minutes played and percentage of shots taken. He’ll be a top-tier NBA draft prospect next year.

Marquette vs. Georgetown Prediction and Pick

My pick: Over 152.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Both these teams have their advantages, and you could make a solid argument for either side.

However, the best bet here is the over.

Both teams’ advantages come specifically on the offensive side, for one. But what really pushes me towards the over is the potential pace of this game.

Marquette is 24th in tempo while Georgetown is 25th. Marquette is fifth in average length of possession but Georgetown is 50th.

Both these teams will get out and run, and both are going to set up their offenses very quickly. We’re looking at a game with a ton of possessions, and that definitely places value on the over.

Tanner joined Lineups to cover everything, but he has vast experience in, and unlimited passion for, Major League Baseball and NCAA Basketball. He’s a McGill University grad and former (Canadian) Division-I alpine ski racer who now spends his time drinking beer and betting home underdogs. Patrick Mahomes is a poor man’s Tom Brady.

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