Maryland vs. Indiana: Predictions, Odds, & Best Bets (3/10/23) – NCAAB

After being able to easily defeat 14th seeded Minnesota in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament, the Maryland Terrapins are set to face off against the Indiana Hoosiers tonight.  Indiana was given a double-bye in the tournament so this will be their first matchup after having two rest days in Chicago.  Maryland enters as the 6th seed with Indiana being the 3.  Both teams are eager to make it on to the semifinals in this conference bracket, so let’s jump into this game’s picks and predictions:

Maryland vs. Indiana Prediction

Maryland narrowly missed out on getting a double bye by losing to Penn State on the final day of the regular season.  However, they were able to take advantage of the mismatch against Minnesota to make it to Friday in their conference tournament.  The Terrapins finished with an 11-9 conference record.  They were one of the best teams in the country at home as they were almost unbeatable at College Park.  Unfortunately, they struggled often on the road.  They had a 1-9 record on the road throughout conference play.  With neutral sites from here on out, it will be interesting to see what style of play the Terrapins adapt to.

The Hoosiers were able to clinch a double bye after winning a tight game against Michigan in overtime last Sunday.  They finished 3rd in the Big Ten with a 12-8 conference record.  This team has many postseason aspirations with senior and first-team all-american Trayce Jackson-Davis.  Indiana will need to have an excellent conference tournament if they want to help better their NCAA tourney seeding.

These two only played once in the regular season with Maryland, coming away with the victory 66-55.  This game was played at Maryland however, so it will be interesting to see how it fares on a neutral site.  Both teams didn’t shoot particularly well that night.  Indiana was held to just 42% from field goal range.  Maryland also only shot 32% from 3-point range and struggled from deep most of the season.  The Terrapins were able to win by forcing full court press defense that Indiana struggled to break.  If Maryland is able to do that again, it could be a struggling day for Indiana’s offense.

Maryland Vs. Indiana Prediction: Indiana -2

Maryland certainly had the home court advantage their first go around with Indiana.  I think the Hoosiers are able to not struggle as much with the full court press this time around.  Ultimately, Indiana is a better shooting team than Maryland.  This will be the deciding factor in this matchup.  Freshman guard Jalen Hood-Schifino has been a rising star for the Hoosiers and is averaging around 13 PPG and 36% from 3-point range.  He struggled against the press in the first matchup, but expect him to be more prepared and ready for it this time around.  Hood-Schifino has also adapted well to being the main point guard for this Hoosiers squad.  A role he was still getting used to earlier in the year.

Maryland will need to have a good shooting night from their leading scorer Jahmir Young.  The guard was named first-team All-Big Ten for a reason.  He is averaging 16.2 PPG and 3.2 assists per game.  The Terrapins will rely on their forwards Julian Reese and Donta Scott from scoring as well, but they may have their work cut out for them with guarding Trayce Jackson-Davis.

Indiana has the advantage on the offensive side.  They are averaging 75.3 points per contest with Maryland only at 70.7 PPG.  Maryland has the advantage on the defensive end with only allowing 62.9 PPG to Indiana’s 68.5.  Maryland will need to win this game on the defensive end, but don’t expect Indiana to struggle as much in this contest.  They are one of the best shooting teams in the country when they get shots up.  If they are able to do that in this game, expect Indiana to win in a tight matchup.  With the spread at currently -2, I think Indiana comes out with a win of around 4 or 5 points.

Maryland vs. Indiana Betting Odds

Indiana is currently slight moneyline favorites at -145.  This isn’t too big a surprise with Indiana coming in ranked and with a lower seed.  It wouldn’t be a surprise either however if Maryland was the favorite.  Especially with beating IU earlier in the year.  You can grab the Terrapins as underdogs at +122.  The spread line is -2 in Indiana’s favor.  ESPN Analytics currently predicts Indiana to win at 50.7% which is extremely close.  Maryland currently has the better Kenpom ranking, as they are ranked 18th to Indiana’s 31st.  The over/under total is currently 135.  This makes sense with both teams scoring and defensive average.  If Indiana is able to get offense going, the over should be able to hit.

Key Matchup

Trayce Jackson-Davis vs. Maryland

This is Trayce Jackson-Davis’ swan song with Indiana, and his final chance to win a Big Ten Tournament.  He is the fourth-leading scorer in Indiana history and will certainly want to go out with a bang.  He is averaging 20.5 PPG and 11.9 rebounds per game.  If that wasn’t enough, he is also leading the team in assists with 3.9 APG.  If he is able to get his game going the way he often does, expect Indiana to move on to the semifinals in the Big Ten Tournament.