Maryland vs Ohio State: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/6/22)

Maryland vs Ohio State Betting Odds

Ohio State looks to close the gap between the Buckeyes and the top-tier of Big Ten teams Sunday, and a win over Maryland would accomplish just that.

Luckily, Maryland has been awful. Despite the talent on the roster and wins over Illinois and Florida, the Terps are 11-11 overall and 3-8 in Big Ten play. The Terps fired Mark Turgeon earlier this season as a result.

Danny Manning’s Terps have covered in three of the last four games, however, so perhaps the squad is finding something down the stretch.

I am hesitant to believe that.

Maryland Terrapins Odds

Last season, Maryland was a jump-shooting team without any type of interior presence – on offense or defense.

This season, the Terps have a much-better interior presence with Qudus Wahab. The rebounding has improved considerably along with the 2-point defense.

However, the backcourt tandem of Fatts Russell and Eric Ayala is teeming with disappointment. What was supposed to be a top-tier backcourt has been national average on offense and uninspiring on defense.

Ayala and Russell take most of Maryland’s shots with an average ORtg of 100. Maryland is also 324th in defensive turnover rate and 262nd in half-court points per possession allowed.

The Terps have put up some inspired efforts this season. Most recently, they almost took down Michigan State at home but collapsed in the late minutes to lose by two points. The 16-point victory over Illinois was also very impressive.

But consistency is a major issue. Dropping a home game to Rutgers is the worst thing a Big Ten team can do.

Ohio State Buckeyes Odds

The Buckeyes continue to fly offensively, ranking ninth nationally in offensive efficiency and 13th in effective field goal percentage. They’re second in the Big Ten in both those stats, too.

Unfortunately, the Buckeyes trail Purdue. And when the two met up last Sunday, Purdue pulled off a three-point home victory.

That begs the question: Can Chris Holtmann’s offense lead Ohio State to the promised land?

Last season, this offense lost to Oral Roberts in the first round. The defense needs to be somewhat competent for OSU to be a title contender.

The defense is weak this year, but mostly on the perimeter. The Buckeyes are sub-300 in pick-and-roll points per possession allowed and defensive steal rate. The Buckeyes are mostly experienced in the backcourt, but freshman Malaki Branham takes most of the possessions.

However, the interior defense has been great. EJ Liddell is an amazing two-way player, one that scores 20 points per game while also ranking in the top-50 nationally in block rate. His interior presence is the reason that OSU ranks above the 80th percentile in post-up points per possession allowed.

You can score on Ohio State, but it must be on the backcourt. If you try to challenge Liddell on the interior, you will get shut down.

Maryland vs Ohio State Prediction and Pick

My pick: Maryland +9.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Maryland has a solid interior defensive presence. While Branham and Jamari Wheeler constitute an excellent offensive backcourt, I believe the Terps will be able to neutralize Liddell – thereby neutralizing OSU’s offense.

Meanwhile, Maryland’s offense is very perimeter-oriented, and that should exploit OSU’s weakness on defense. If Russell and Ayala both have good games, this will be a very competitive matchup.

Plus, it’s always smart to fade the public in power conference matchups. At the time of this writing, over 90% of the tickets are coming in on Ohio State, giving us a great chance to fade the public and bet Maryland.

While I don’t expect a pathetic Maryland team to win this game, I expect the Terps to keep it within double digits for the full 40 minutes.