Maryland vs. Penn State Odds, Picks, and Predictions (11/12/22)

In week 11 of the College Football season, a Big Ten matchup between two East divisional teams will go underway as the Maryland Terrapins travel to Penn State to take on the Nittany Lions. Both these teams are competitive and have both already qualified for bowl-eligibility with six wins under their belt. The Maryland Terrapins enter this game at 6-3 but also fresh off a tough loss last week against Wisconsin 23-10. Penn State enters this game at 7-2 and fresh off a beat down they put on Indiana in which they won 45-14.

Penn State also enters this game ranked 14th in the country but they’re two losses have come from other Big Ten East giants in Michigan and Ohio State which pretty much blockades their chances from entering the Big Ten Championship game. They are certainly still in consideration to get to a possible high-standing bowl game so a big win against Maryland is exactly what they need. Maryland stands right behind Penn State in the Big Ten East standings with a 3-3 conference record so getting this win would give them a tiebreaker to jump them in standings. The Terrapins have played tough this season but strength of schedule lacks any ranked wins. A win against Penn State this weekend would certainly bulk up their season for a better bowl game. Let’s get into this game’s picks and predictions.

Maryland vs. Penn State Betting Odds

Penn State at home enters this game as pretty heavy favorites with moneyline odds at -400 in favor of the Nittany Lions. They also enter as double digit spread line favorites at -10.5 points. This is most likely due to last week’s results where Penn State looked unstoppable on the running attack as well as being strong on the defensive front, not letting Indiana get much breathing room. On the other hand, Maryland struggled offensively against a Wisconsin team that is dealing with a down year of their own. Maryland’s been averaging 31.4 points per game but only managed to put up 10 against the Badgers. QB Taulia Tagovailoa returned after getting hurt against Indiana and sitting out against Northwestern, but he struggled to return to form with only completing 10-23 passes for 77 yards. He will need to return to the form he was at before getting hurt in order for this Terrapin to have a chance. He has thrown for over 2,000 passing yards and 14 TDs this season so far even with missing a game.

The over/under is currently 59 total points for this game. Both these teams average similarly in points scored and points allowed. The Terrapins average 31.4 points per game while the Nittany Lions average 34.4. For points allowed, Penn State lets up on average 21.1 while Maryland allows 24 points per game.

Maryland vs. Penn State Picks & Predictions

My pick: Penn State -10.5 (-105)

I think Penn State is the strongest team in the Big Ten for a team not named Michigan or Ohio State. They have shown their ability to beat just about anyone else without it really being close. Their only Big Ten win that has come from a margin of less than 10 points was against Purdue in a week 0 game prior to non conference games. That’s why I’m rolling with Penn State to roll on the offensive momentum they showed last week to cover the 10.5 spread against Maryland. Penn State is averaging 436.7 yards per game with 265.7 of those coming from the passing game so QB Sean Clifford has been consistent but last week it was the running game that truly stepped up, so if they can still keep it strong on the run I believe the Nittany Lions should have no problems covering.

I like the over in this game with the total at 59 points. I think both of these teams have a good amount of offense and one of these teams getting over 30 or potentially 40 points but I don’t think either team should struggle getting points on the board.

Key Matchup

Penn State RBs vs. Maryland Defense

The biggest matchup of the week is the Penn State running game vs. the Maryland Defense. I couldn’t include one RB since the duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen has been explosive for the Nittany Lions. Singleton has led the way with yards at 679 for the season to Allen’s 558, but it has been Allen who has been the one who has been stepping up as of late and shown major improvement. He rushed for 3 TDs last week against Indiana and both him and Singleton have 8 TDs on the season. This team averages 171 rushing yards per game and Maryland has been letting up on average 137.8 rushing yards per game. If these two RBs are able to get it going on Saturday, it could be a long day for Maryland’s defense.