Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers NBA Player Props & Picks (1/17/24)

The Dallas Mavericks (24-17) encounter the Los Angeles Lakers (20-21) this Wednesday (1/17/24). Get Mavericks vs. Lakers player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers Player Prop Picks

Which players will thrive in the Mavericks vs. Lakers contest?

Anthony Davis First Basket (+410 FD)

Davis is heavily favored to win the tip-off over Dereck Lively II, so the Lakers should get the first shot of the game. 

Davis leads the Lakers in Team First FGA%; in other words, he takes Los Angeles’ first field goal attempt at the highest rate of all players on the roster. Davis faces a Mavericks defense that surrenders the sixth most points per game to centers and the third largest field goal percentage within eight feet of the basket (via NBA.com). 

He averages the third most field goal attempts in this area across the league, and they account for roughly 65 percent of his total field goal attempts. Based on his shot diet, efficiency, and matchup, Davis has an excellent chance to score the first basket (which includes free throws). He needs to accomplish this feat at least 20 percent of the time given his odds for the bet to be profitable in the long run. 

Christian Wood Over 7.5 Points (-102 FD)

As stated above, Dallas’ defense struggles mightily to defend centers, especially ones that can stretch the floor like Wood. He has seen an uptick in volume recently. Over his past six games, Wood has averaged eight field goal attempts per game and cleared eight points in every contest. For context, he only averaged 5.1 attempts per game across the previous 29 games. 

Los Angeles’ inability to score is a major factor in Wood’s revival. The Lakers rank 22nd in Offensive Rating and 20th in three-point percentage, so their pursuit of added shooting led them to him. They reportedly desire an offensive 7’0” center that could potentially play next to Davis; therefore, perhaps the Lakers are giving Wood a trial run before testing the trade market. Whatever the case may be, he is getting solid volume and currently converting at a high rate. Overall, the 7.5 point line has not fully adjusted to his new role. 

He must hit the over at least 51 percent of the time for the bet to be profitable in the long run. 

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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