Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Player Props & Picks (11/3/23)
The Dallas Mavericks encounter the Denver Nuggets this Friday (11/3/23). Get Mavericks vs. Nuggets player props best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.
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Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Player Prop Picks
Which players in the Maveicks vs. Nuggets contest will crush their players props?
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 3PM (-125 DK)
The veteran sharpshooter owns a 44.4 3PT% and is averaging 3.6 three-point attempts per game. He’s a vital off-ball piece for Denver, who loves to kick it out to open shooters. The Mavericks are currently allowing the second most points per game and most made threes per game to opposing shooting guards, which bodes well for Caldwell-Pope. Across four regular season matchups last year, these were “KCP” attempts from deep:
- 5 3PA
- 5 3PA
- 5 3PA
- 6 3PA
Caldwell-Pope should see around five attempts here, and he possesses the shooting chops to knock down two of them. Based on his odds, he needs to make two threes about 55 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.
Luka Doncic Over 8.5 Rebounds (-140 DK)
At 6’7” tall, Luka Doncic can get involved on the glass far more often than the typical NBA point guard. He loves to fight for rebounds because it allows him to push the pace and utilize his transcendent passing ability. Only Deandre Ayton and Domantas Sabonis are averaging more defensive rebounds than Doncic at the moment.
Rookie Dereck Lively II has held up as a rebounder, but his skinny frame may pose issues against Nikola Jokic. Factor in Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr, and Dallas needs all hands on deck to stop Denver from stacking second chance opportunities. Therefore, Doncic will be crucial here.
He has cleared 9 rebounds in three of four games. Doncic must accomplish this feat about 58 percent of the time based on his odds for the bet to own a positive expected value.
Aaron Gordon Under 0.5 Steals (+105 DK)
Of Grant Williams’ total field goal attempts, 82.9 percent are three-point attempts, 77.2 percent are on zero dribbles, and 79.5 percent are on a touch time of zero to two seconds. In other words, Williams’ is a quick play-finisher that rarely creates off the dribble, thus limiting on-ball steal attempts for Aaron Gordon. His range (55.2 3PT%) will also pull Gordon away from helping on driving lanes where he could potentially reach in and poke the ball away too. Essentially, Williams’ shot profile doesn’t paint a pretty picture for Gordon’s defensive box score.
Gordon must record no steals about 48 percent of the time for the bet to hold a positive expected value.
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