Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons NBA Player Props & Picks (3/9/24)

The Dallas Mavericks (35-28) take on the Detroit Pistons (10-52) this Saturday (3/9/24). Get Mavericks vs. Pistons player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons Player Prop Picks

Which players will dominate this Mavericks vs. Pistons game?

Daniel Gafford Over 17.5 Points+Rebounds (-120 DK, 1.5u) & Double Double (+285 DK, 0.5u)

Daniel Gafford will get the start with Dereck Lively II sidelined. Since joining Dallas at the deadline, Gafford has averaged 0.528 points per minute and 0.403 rebounds per minute (via Basketball Reference). At that rate, he would need to see 20 minutes in order to reach 18 PRs. Given Lively’s injury, that appears to be highly likely. 

The matchup bodes well for Gafford too. In the restricted area, Detroit surrenders the 13th most field goal attempts and 12th largest field goal percentage. They also allow 1.29 points per roll man possession, which ranks 29th across the NBA. Essentially all of Gafford’s attempts come from the restricted area, and he owns the second largest roll man possession frequency in the league. 

Meanwhile, Detroit sits 23rd in effective field goal percentage and 10th in pace. They play fast and miss a ton of shots, so there should be plenty of rebound chances for Gafford despite Jalen Duren’s strength on the glass. 

Finally, opposing centers average the 10th most points per game and 11th most rebounds per game against the Pistons.

For the bets to have a positive expected value, Gafford must hit 18 PRs at least 55 percent of the time and record a double double at least 26 percent of the time. 

Ausar Thompson Over 0.5 3PM (-135 DK)

The Mavericks give up the 9th most wide open three-point attempts and 4th most corner three-point attempts per game, so it could be a big night for Detroit’s shooters. 

Ausar Thompson entered the draft with serious shooting concerns, and he has not alleviated them in the slightest this season. So far, the rookie has shot just 21 for 111 from deep, or 18.9 percent, despite 97 of those looks being classified as wide open. 

However, Thompson has produced a 32 three-point percentage on 4.2 attempts per game over his past six games. He knocked down at least one triple in five of those six contests. It’s a small sample, but it provides a glimmer of hope that Thompson’s shooting is starting to improve. 

Dallas will be eager to pack the paint against Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Jalen Duren, and daring Thompson to launch is fundamental to that strategy. Therefore, expect wide open looks for the rooke all night once again. 

He must hit the over at least 58 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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