Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs: Predictions, Starting Lineups (10/25/23)

The Dallas Mavericks travel to face the San Antonio Spurs this Wednesday (10/25/23). Get Mavericks vs. Spurs moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, best bets, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchups.

Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction

Braxton Reynolds

Lineups

Over 111.5

FanDuel

-148

Home Team Alternate Total Points

Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA2023-24 Week of Oct 23

10/25 8:30 PM


Bet with Braxton


Published on Oct 24, 2023 8:20 PM

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Victor Wembanyama lived up to the incalculable hype and then some during pre-season. He averaged 33.2 points per 36 minutes on an impressive 61 true shooting percentage. Granted, it’s pre-season defense, but Wembanyama looked legitimately unstoppable in the open court, displayed an impressive handle and shot over any defender. His presence will completely transform a Spurs offense that ranked 29th in offensive rating. The Mavericks acquired Grant Williams over the off-season as their defensive stopper, but he’s nearly a foot shorter than Wembanyama! The first overall pick will easily get his shot off and create an enormous amount of space for his teammates.

Meanwhile, Most Improved candidate Devin Vassell is set to explode this year. Before his injury in late December, Vassell averaged 19.6 points and 3.6 assists while shooting 40.3 percent from deep. The Florida State product ranked 22nd in Basketball Index’s off-ball gravity metric because of his electric deep ball, and his on-ball creation appeared polished during the pre-season. He faces a Mavericks defense that allowed the 5th highest pick-and-roll ball handler points per possession last year. Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Jaden Hardy, and Seth Curry form one of the worst defensive guard rooms in the NBA, so Vassell should dominate here.

Dallas’ pick-and-roll woes also benefit Keldon Johnson, who averaged 22 points last year. He’s a smooth scorer that will exploit Dallas’ poor screen navigation and ineffective isolation defense. With Wembanyama, Vassell, and Johnson on the court, San Antonio possesses three high-level scorers that complement each other well.

The Spurs are trotting out a jumbo lineup by supplementing their trio with 6’8” Jeremy Sochan and 6’11” Zach Collins. Sochan’s passing and cutting keep the ball moving and deter defenders from hyper-focusing on the stars. Collins, on the other hand, gives San Antonio a roll and post up threat that has range extending to the three-point line. He will pull Dereck Lively II out of the paint and away from helping on Wembanyama.

Overall, San Antonio’s offense projects to be better than expected early on due to internal growth and the Wembanyama effect. Dallas’ defense should be improved this year, but they are still average at best and will struggle with San Antonio’s size.

Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction: Spurs alternate over 111.5 points (-148 FD)

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Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs Best Odds

DAL @ SA

Oct. 26, 1:30 AM

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Dallas Mavericks

DAL

San Antonio Spurs

SA

Odds updated October 26th, 2023, at 4:06 am

The Mavericks are 3.5 point favorite, although the line assumes that Luka Doncic will play. San Antonio must win this game about 40% of the time for their +146 moneyline to hold a positive expected value. Finally, the 230 over under is on the higher end of Wednesday games.

Dallas Mavericks Starting Lineup

PG: Luka Doncic
SG: Kyrie Irving
SF: Josh Green
PF: Grant Williams
C: Dereck Lively II

San Antonio Spurs Starting Lineup

PG: Jeremy Sochan
SG: Devin Vassell
SF: Keldon Johnson
PF: Victor Wembanyama
C: Zach Collins

Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs Injuries

This matchup unfortunately features a slew of injuries. Luka Doncic, Jaden Hardy, and Dwight Powell are all questionable for Dallas, while Zach Collins holds the same designation for San Antonio. In addition, Devonte’ Graham is out after being suspended for the first two games of the season.

Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs Key Matchups

Spurs Free Throws

The Mavericks ranked 27th in opponent free throw rate because they were frequently beat off the dribble and didn’t have the size to contest without fouling. Although they added some size and defensive discipline over the off-season, San Antonio’s jumbo lineup likely still draws fouls here. That’s huge for the Spurs point total because of how valuable free throws are. For example, a league average free throw shooter (78.2 FT%) produces 1.564 expected points per possession on a trip to the line. That value is equal to the expected points per possession of a 52.1 3PT% shooter!

Spurs Bench

With Sochan starting, point guard Tre Jones moves to the second unit. His steady presence and ability to orchestrate the pick-and-roll greatly increases the unit’s shot quality. He owned one of the best assist to turnover ratios in the NBA at 6.6 to 1.6. Veteran sharpshooter Doug McDermott (41.3 3PT%, 4.7 3PA) brings spacing and quick points via threes, while Cedi Osman has an underrated off the dribble scoring package.

Finally, sophomores Malaki Branham and Blake Wesley can both get hot and handle the ball. These two are complete wild cards in terms of efficiency, but they can inject a massive spark when playing well. Overall, San Antonio’s bench is sneaky deep, and they can take advantage of Dallas’ weak bench defense.

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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