The Dallas Mavericks travel to face the San Antonio Spurs this Wednesday (10/25/23). Get Mavericks vs. Spurs moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, best bets, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchups.
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction
Braxton Reynolds Lineups Over 111.5 -148 Home Team Alternate Total Points Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs NBA • 2023-24 Week of Oct 23 10/25 8:30 PM Bet with Braxton Published on Oct 24, 2023 8:20 PM • Betslip #1698196830391-e6b0-291
Home Team Alternate Total Points
Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs
NBA • 2023-24 Week of Oct 23
10/25 8:30 PM
Bet with Braxton
Published on Oct 24, 2023 8:20 PM
Victor Wembanyama lived up to the incalculable hype and then some during pre-season. He averaged 33.2 points per 36 minutes on an impressive 61 true shooting percentage. Granted, it’s pre-season defense, but Wembanyama looked legitimately unstoppable in the open court, displayed an impressive handle and shot over any defender. His presence will completely transform a Spurs offense that ranked 29th in offensive rating. The Mavericks acquired Grant Williams over the off-season as their defensive stopper, but he’s nearly a foot shorter than Wembanyama! The first overall pick will easily get his shot off and create an enormous amount of space for his teammates.
Meanwhile, Most Improved candidate Devin Vassell is set to explode this year. Before his injury in late December, Vassell averaged 19.6 points and 3.6 assists while shooting 40.3 percent from deep. The Florida State product ranked 22nd in Basketball Index’s off-ball gravity metric because of his electric deep ball, and his on-ball creation appeared polished during the pre-season. He faces a Mavericks defense that allowed the 5th highest pick-and-roll ball handler points per possession last year. Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Jaden Hardy, and Seth Curry form one of the worst defensive guard rooms in the NBA, so Vassell should dominate here.
Dallas’ pick-and-roll woes also benefit Keldon Johnson, who averaged 22 points last year. He’s a smooth scorer that will exploit Dallas’ poor screen navigation and ineffective isolation defense. With Wembanyama, Vassell, and Johnson on the court, San Antonio possesses three high-level scorers that complement each other well.
The Spurs are trotting out a jumbo lineup by supplementing their trio with 6’8” Jeremy Sochan and 6’11” Zach Collins. Sochan’s passing and cutting keep the ball moving and deter defenders from hyper-focusing on the stars. Collins, on the other hand, gives San Antonio a roll and post up threat that has range extending to the three-point line. He will pull Dereck Lively II out of the paint and away from helping on Wembanyama.
Overall, San Antonio’s offense projects to be better than expected early on due to internal growth and the Wembanyama effect. Dallas’ defense should be improved this year, but they are still average at best and will struggle with San Antonio’s size.
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction: Spurs alternate over 111.5 points (-148 FD)
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Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs Best Odds
Oct. 26, 1:30 AM Spread Moneyline Total Odds updated October 26th, 2023, at 4:06 am
DAL @ SA
Oct. 26, 1:30 AM
Odds updated October 26th, 2023, at 4:06 am
The Mavericks are 3.5 point favorite, although the line assumes that Luka Doncic will play. San Antonio must win this game about 40% of the time for their +146 moneyline to hold a positive expected value. Finally, the 230 over under is on the higher end of Wednesday games.
Dallas Mavericks Starting Lineup
San Antonio Spurs Starting Lineup
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs Injuries
This matchup unfortunately features a slew of injuries. Luka Doncic, Jaden Hardy, and Dwight Powell are all questionable for Dallas, while Zach Collins holds the same designation for San Antonio. In addition, Devonte’ Graham is out after being suspended for the first two games of the season.
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs Key Matchups
Spurs Free Throws
The Mavericks ranked 27th in opponent free throw rate because they were frequently beat off the dribble and didn’t have the size to contest without fouling. Although they added some size and defensive discipline over the off-season, San Antonio’s jumbo lineup likely still draws fouls here. That’s huge for the Spurs point total because of how valuable free throws are. For example, a league average free throw shooter (78.2 FT%) produces 1.564 expected points per possession on a trip to the line. That value is equal to the expected points per possession of a 52.1 3PT% shooter!
With Sochan starting, point guard Tre Jones moves to the second unit. His steady presence and ability to orchestrate the pick-and-roll greatly increases the unit’s shot quality. He owned one of the best assist to turnover ratios in the NBA at 6.6 to 1.6. Veteran sharpshooter Doug McDermott (41.3 3PT%, 4.7 3PA) brings spacing and quick points via threes, while Cedi Osman has an underrated off the dribble scoring package.
Finally, sophomores Malaki Branham and Blake Wesley can both get hot and handle the ball. These two are complete wild cards in terms of efficiency, but they can inject a massive spark when playing well. Overall, San Antonio’s bench is sneaky deep, and they can take advantage of Dallas’ weak bench defense.